Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 27

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Hensgens R. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Canada	Sportsnet+
France	DAZN France
Hong-kong	myTV SUPER
India	Eurosport, JioTV app
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Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 4
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN
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Serbia	Arena Sport 7
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Turkey	Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Triller TV+


	AZ Alkmaar		Heracles Almelo

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.5	7.5	Watch
	1.35	4.95	8.9
	1.36	5.6	8.33
	1.36	5.31	7.75	Watch
	1.33	4.8	7
	1.34	5.53	8.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.32)	5.28 ↑ (5.03)	8.02 ↓ (8.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
70.3%

Draw
17.9%

Heracles Almelo
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.6%

18.5%

10.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76.2%

17.1%

10.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Heracles Almelo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heracles Almelo than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	35.7%	0%

AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2 - AZ (3.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - Heracles (6.70) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): AZ Alkmaar will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 4 - 80%). Heracles (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Verhulst H. (G) 22. Dijkstra E. 3. Goes W. 23. van Duijl B. 34. de Wit M. 6. Koopmeiners P. 10. Mijnans S. (C) 26. Smit K. 7. Weslley Patati 9. Parrott T. 27. Daal R.	22. Pasveer R. (G) 3. Wieckhoff J. 4. Mirani D. (C) 18. Van Hoorenbeeck A. 24. Mesik I. 13. Zamburek J. 20. Bozinovski R. 14. Ahlstrand E. 70. Hrustic A. 9. Unuvar N. 25. Zeefuik L.
Substitutes
20. Boogaard K. 31. Deen D. (G) 19. Hornkamp J. 18. Ichihara R. 17. Jensen I. 30. Kasius D. 35. Meerdink M. 14. Natali A. 24. Oufkir A. 11. Sadiq I. 71. Schipper J. (G) 33. Sin M.	2. Benita M. 21. Borges Sanches Y. 10. Bruns T. 6. Cestic S. 41. Hamamioglu T. 16. Jansink T. (G) 7. Limbombe B. 30. Mantel R. (G) 32. Scheperman S. 5. van der Kust D. 17. van Gilst T.
Coaches
Echteld L.	Faber E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Parrott T. ⚽, de Wit M. (A),
32', Daal R. ↓, Jensen I. ↑,
43', Wieckhoff J. 🟨,
45+1', 2 - 0, Mijnans S. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Wieckhoff J. ↓, Benita M. ↑,
46', Bozinovski R. ↓, Scheperman S. ↑,
56', Unuvar N. ↓, van Gilst T. ↑,
58', Zeefuik L. 🟨,
60', Dijkstra E. ↓, Kasius D. ↑,
60', Weslley Patati ↓, Sadiq I. ↑,
70', Scheperman S. 🟨,
71', Zamburek J. ↓, Bruns T. ↑,
76', 3 - 0, de Wit M. ⚽, Parrott T. (A),
77', Parrott T. ↓, Meerdink M. ↑,
77', Koopmeiners P. ↓, Boogaard K. ↑,
82', Mirani D. 🟨,
84', 4 - 0, Jensen I. ⚽,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Eerste Divisie).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 3.

In recent matches, AZ has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Heracles is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Heracles may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, AZ is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, AZ won 15 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 52:26. (average 2.6:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 30:6. (average 3:0.6).

Outrights of Dutch Eredivisie for now

Heracles: 35.06%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19

Last Results with these Odds

AZ Alkmaar - the odds 1.32 are the expected chance of winning is 70.6%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Prague	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
07.03.26	PSV Eindhoven - AZ Alkmaar	2:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
04.03.26	AZ Alkmaar - Telstar	2:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.03.26	Utrecht - AZ Alkmaar	2:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
26.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Noah Yerevan	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWLW
- Heracles Almelo
Dutch Eredivisie
06.03.26	Heracles Almelo - Utrecht	0:0 ✺
28.02.26	Heracles Almelo - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
22.02.26	Go Ahead Eagles - Heracles Almelo	4:0 ✺
14.02.26	Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda	0:1 ✺
07.02.26	NEC Nijmegen - Heracles Almelo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
14.09.25	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	1:2
13.04.25	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	1:0
Dutch KNVB Beker
27.02.25	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	2:3 penalties
Dutch Eredivisie
01.12.24	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	1:0
03.04.24	Heracles Almelo - AZ Alkmaar	5:0
28.09.23	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	1:1
19.02.22	AZ Alkmaar - Heracles Almelo	2:1

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