Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 21 September 2023, Thursday

Location: Stadion Wojska Polskiego (Warsaw)

Referee: Manouchos V. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Ring
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Urheilu
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV5
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Xtra
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Legia Warsaw		Aston Villa

	1	X	2
	6	4.2	1.55
	5.5	4.3	1.52	Watch
	5.5	4.2	1.53
	6.16	4.38	1.55
	5.95	4.4	1.51
	5.8	4.4	1.56
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.82 ↑ (4.94)	4.31 ↑ (3.92)	1.54 ↓ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Legia Warsaw
16.3%

Draw
22%

Aston Villa
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

24%

57%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.1%

22.7%

53.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Aston Villa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Aston Villa, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Legia Warsaw - Aston Villa Predictions

Users Predictions: Aston Villa will win (32 of 40 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.6% – 92.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tobiasz K. (G) 12. Pankov R. 3. Kapuadi S. 5. Ribeiro Y. 13. Wszolek P. 99. Slisz B. 22. Elitim J. 33. Kun P. 27. Josue (C) 28. Gual M. 20. Muci E.	1. Martinez E. (G) 16. Chambers C. 4. Konsa E. 17. Lenglet C. 12. Digne L. 44. Kamara B. 8. Tielemans Y. 31. Bailey L. 7. McGinn J. (C) 22. Zaniolo N. 24. Duran J.
Substitutes
32. Baku M. 4. Burch M. 21. Celhaka J. 17. Gil Dias 30. Hladun D. (G) 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 23. Kobylak G. (G) 9. Kramer B. 7. Pekhart T. 39. Rosolek M. 18. Sokolowski P. 86. Strzalek I.	2. Cash M. 32. Dendoncker L. 19. Diaby M. 6. Douglas Luiz 42. Marschall F. (G) 15. Moreno A. 25. Olsen R. (G) 41. Ramsey J. 14. Torres P. 11. Watkins O.
Coaches
Runjaic K.	Emery U.

Preview

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

In this match Aston Villa is indisputable favorite.

There will not play in Legia: Augustyniak R. (Muscle Injury) Kapustka B. (Knee Injury) Kramer B. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Aston Villa: Buendia E. (Knee Injury) Diego Carlos (Injury) Hause K. (Knee Injury) Iroegbunam T. (Surgery) Mings T. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Legia: Mustafaev R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Aston Villa: Ramsey J. (Foot Injury) Traore B. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
16.09.23	Piast Gliwice - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
03.09.23	Legia Warsaw - Widzew Łódź	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Legia Warsaw - Midtjylland	2:1 penalties ✺
24.08.23	Midtjylland - Legia Warsaw	3:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.08.23	Legia Warsaw - Korona Kielce	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWWTW
- Aston Villa
English Premier League
16.09.23	Aston Villa - Crystal Palace	3:1 ✺
03.09.23	Liverpool - Aston Villa	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Aston Villa - Hibernian	3:0 ✺
English Premier League
27.08.23	Burnley - Aston Villa	1:3 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
23.08.23	Hibernian - Aston Villa	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWWW

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