Match Info

Eredivisie - Round 24

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar)

Referee: Lindhout A. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	AZ Alkmaar		Sparta Rotterdam

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.6	3.5	Watch
	1.87	3.9	3.75
	2.08	3.7	3.35
	2.04	3.8	3.55
	1.94	3.87	3.59	Watch
	2	3.6	3.1
	2.03	3.67	3.76	Watch
	1.93	3.6	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↑ (1.57)	3.72 ↓ (4.25)	3.51 ↓ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

AZ Alkmaar
47.5%

Draw
25.5%

Sparta Rotterdam
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.4%

21.9%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

22.8%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

AZ Alkmaar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that AZ Alkmaar's form might have worsened.

Sparta Rotterdam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sparta Rotterdam's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (+14.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Rotterdam than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sparta Rotterdam, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.9%	5.3%	36.8%

AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. AZ will win (votes: 11 - 57.9%). Sparta Rotterdam will win (votes: 7 - 36.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AZ: 35.7% – 80.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. AZ (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Sparta Rotterdam (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Zoet J. (G) 17. Jensen I. 3. Goes W. 5. Penetra 23. van Duijl B. 15. Chavez Garcia M. 33. Sin M. 20. Boogaard K. 6. Koopmeiners P. (C) 19. Hornkamp J. 9. Parrott T.	1. Drommel J. (G) 2. Martes L. 3. Young M. 4. Martins Indi B. (C) 5. Quintero T. 8. Kitolano J. 6. Clement P. 7. van Bergen M. 10. Santos A. 11. Mito S. 9. Lauritsen T.
Substitutes
27. Daal R. 34. de Wit M. 22. Dijkstra E. 18. Ichihara R. 35. Meerdink M. 10. Mijnans S. 24. Oufkir A. 1. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 11. Sadiq I. 26. Smit K. 12. Verhulst H. (G)	22. Baas J. 12. Bakari S. 20. Bednarek F. (G) 18. de Guzman J. 13. de Ligt M. 15. Kleijn M. 30. Kuiper P. (G) 16. Roaldsoy A. 17. Terho C. 21. Toornstra J. 14. van Aanholt P. 19. Zonneveld M.
Coaches
Echteld L.	Steijn M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
31', Goes W. 🟨,
33', Goes W. ↓, Dijkstra E. ↑,
34', Clement P. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Boogaard K. ↓, Oufkir A. ↑,
46', Sin M. ↓, Smit K. ↑,
60', Hornkamp J. ↓, Mijnans S. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Mijnans S. ⚽, Chavez Garcia M. (A),
70', Kitolano J. ↓, Roaldsoy A. ↑,
70', Mito S. ↓, Terho C. ↑,
78', Martes L. ↓, Zonneveld M. ↑,
78', Clement P. ↓, Baas J. ↑,
78', Chavez Garcia M. ↓, de Wit M. ↑,
79', Young M. 🟨,
83', 2 - 0, Smit K. ⚽,
87', 2 - 1, Zonneveld M. ⚽, Terho C. (A),
90', 3 - 1, Parrott T. ⚽, Zoet J. (A),
90+1', Parrott T. 🟨,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Eredivisie (Conference League ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ won 3.

AZ has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sparta Rotterdam is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

AZ may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

AZ might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in AZ: Chavez Garcia M. (Yellow Cards) Clasie J. (Ankle Injury) Kasius D. (Injury) Maikuma S. (Injury) Owusu-Oduro R. (Inactive) Weslley Patati (Injury)

There will not play in Sparta Rotterdam: van Crooij V. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sparta Rotterdam: Clement P. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, AZ won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:21. (average 1.9:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, AZ won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:8. (average 2.2:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	1	3	4	13:20	-7	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AZ Alkmaar
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.02.26	Noah Yerevan - AZ Alkmaar	1:0 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
14.02.26	Excelsior - AZ Alkmaar	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	1:1 ✺
Dutch KNVB Beker
03.02.26	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	2:1 ET ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
31.01.26	AZ Alkmaar - NEC Nijmegen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTWL
- Sparta Rotterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
17.02.26	Sparta Rotterdam - NEC Nijmegen	1:1 ✺
07.02.26	Fortuna Sittard - Sparta Rotterdam	2:2 ✺
31.01.26	Sparta Rotterdam - Groningen	2:0 ✺
25.01.26	Utrecht - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Feyenoord - Sparta Rotterdam	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 33.7 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Dutch Eredivisie
02.11.25	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	0:1
26.01.25	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	1:2
24.11.24	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	1:2
02.03.24	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	1:1
17.09.23	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	2:0
08.04.23	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	0:1
14.08.22	Sparta Rotterdam - AZ Alkmaar	2:3

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