Match Info

EUROPE: EUROPA CONFERENCE LEAGUE - GROUP STAGE - ROUND 1

Date: 21 September 2023, Thursday

Location: Stadion pod Bijelim Brijegom (Mostar)

Referee: Robertson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Finland	Viaplay
Netherlands	ESPN
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	SportKlub
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports


	Zrinjski Mostar		AZ Alkmaar

	1	X	2
	5.75	4	1.6
	5	4	1.62	Watch
	5	3.8	1.63
	5.8	3.94	1.64
	5.45	3.92	1.62
	5.8	3.9	1.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.47 ↑ (4.28)	3.93 ↑ (3.63)	1.62 ↓ (1.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zrinjski Mostar
17.4%

Draw
24.2%

AZ Alkmaar
58.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22%

25.9%

52.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

25.4%

53.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zrinjski Mostar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

AZ Alkmaar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting AZ Alkmaar's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zrinjski Mostar than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for AZ Alkmaar than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for AZ Alkmaar, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.5%	7.5%	90%

Zrinjski Mostar - AZ Alkmaar Predictions

Users Predictions: AZ Alkmaar will win (36 of 40 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 99.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Maric M. (G) 6. Corluka J. 15. Radic S. 27. Jakovljevic S. 50. Memija K. 20. Ivancic A. 14. Balic A. 5. Canadjija D. 25. Cuze M. 99. Bilbija N. (C) 91. Ticinovic M.	1. Ryan M. (G) 2. Sugawara Y. 25. Bazoer R. 5. Penetra 18. Wolfe D. 8. Clasie J. (C) 10. de Wit D. 16. Mijnans S. 23. Lahdo M. 9. Pavlidis V. 19. van Brederode M.
Substitutes
26. Bradaric F. 22. Hrvanovic A. 10. Kis T. 93. Kozulj Z. 17. Malekinusic M. 2. Marin L. 24. Misic P. 55. Niron O. (G) 29. Prskalo A. 9. Sabljic F. 95. Senic M. 8. Zlomislic D.	6. Dantas T. 22. Dekker M. 33. Goes W. 28. Goudmijn K. 30. Kasius D. 14. Mihailovic D. 7. Odgaard J. 20. Owusu-Oduro R. (G) 11. Sadiq I. 15. van Bommel R. 12. Verhulst H. (G)
Coaches
Rendulic K.	Jansen P.

Preview

Zrinjski is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

AZ in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

AZ could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match AZ is a favorite.

There will not play in AZ: de Wit M. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Zrinjski: Magdic M. (Injury)

There are questionable in AZ: Martins Indi B. (Hip Injury) Meerdink M. (Shoulder Injury) Owusu-Oduro R. (Injury) Westerveld S. (Knee Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zrinjski Mostar
Bosnian Premier League
16.09.23	Sarajevo - Zrinjski Mostar	1:0 ✺
13.09.23	Zrinjski Mostar - Posušje	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
31.08.23	Zrinjski Mostar - LASK Linz	1:1 ✺
Bosnian Premier League
27.08.23	Zrinjski Mostar - Zvijezda Brgule	5:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.08.23	LASK Linz - Zrinjski Mostar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLTWL
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
17.09.23	AZ Alkmaar - Sparta Rotterdam	2:0 ✺
03.09.23	Vitesse - AZ Alkmaar	0:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
31.08.23	Brann - AZ Alkmaar	3:4 penalties ✺
24.08.23	AZ Alkmaar - Brann	1:1 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
20.08.23	Waalwijk - AZ Alkmaar	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWTW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zrinjski Mostar
Bosnian Premier League
23.10.26	Zrinjski Mostar - Radnik Bijeljina	✺
- AZ Alkmaar
Dutch Eredivisie
31.10.26	Ajax - AZ Alkmaar	✺
25.10.26	AZ Alkmaar - Twente	✺

Zrinjski Mostar - AZ Alkmaar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide