Match Info

Date: 3 May 2021, Monday


	Académica Coimbra		Arouca

	1	X	2
	2.45	2.9	3
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.4	2.95	2.9
	2.46	2.9	3
	2.6	3	3.18
	2.5	3	3
	2.5	2.92	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↑ (2.44)	2.94 ↓ (3.06)	3 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Académica Coimbra
37.4%

Draw
31.6%

Arouca
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

30.3%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.6%

19.7%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Académica Coimbra has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Académica Coimbra than the current prediction. (-12.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Académica Coimbra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+17.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arouca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Académica Coimbra - Arouca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 4 and 6).

Académica is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Arouca in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Arouca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Académica won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 17-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Académica won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Académica Coimbra
Portuguese Liga 2
24.04.21	Académica Coimbra - Chaves	2:1 ✺
18.04.21	Casa Pia - Académica Coimbra	0:3 ✺
10.04.21	Académica Coimbra - Porto B	1:1 ✺
02.04.21	Covilhã - Académica Coimbra	1:1 ✺
28.03.21	Académica Coimbra - Vilafranquense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWTTT
- FC Arouca
Portuguese Liga 2
25.04.21	Arouca - Vilafranquense	3:0 ✺
19.04.21	Covilhã - Arouca	1:2 ✺
11.04.21	Arouca - Oliveirense	3:0 ✺
03.04.21	Porto B - Arouca	0:3 ✺
27.03.21	Arouca - Feirense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
05.01.21	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	0:2
31.03.19	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	2:1
01.12.18	Académica Coimbra - Arouca	2:0
18.03.18	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	1:0
28.10.17	Académica Coimbra - Arouca	4:1
Portuguese League Cup
23.07.17	Académica Coimbra - Arouca	0:1 penalties
Liga Portugal
02.04.16	Arouca - Académica Coimbra	3:2

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