Match Info

Cymru South - Round 23

Date: 20 February 2026, Friday


	Afan Lido		Trethomas Bluebirds

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.45	1.85
	3.19	3.73	1.99
	3.26	3.88	1.98	Watch
	3.1	3.3	1.95
	3.22	3.5	1.98
	3.25	3.66	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.82)	3.59 ↑ (3.52)	1.94 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Afan Lido
27.9%

Draw
25.3%

Trethomas Bluebirds
46.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.9%

26.4%

40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.6%

25.1%

38.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Afan Lido has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Trethomas Bluebirds has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Trethomas Bluebirds's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Afan Lido than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Afan Lido, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trethomas Bluebirds than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Trethomas Bluebirds, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Afan Lido - Trethomas Bluebirds Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Trethomas Bluebirds (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Flay B. ⚽,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 13).

Afan Lido has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Trethomas Bluebirds has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Trethomas Bluebirds will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Afan Lido won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Including home match between the teams, Afan Lido won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Afan Lido	10	3	2	5	13:17	-4	11
10	Trethomas Bluebirds	9	2	4	3	17:17	0	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Afan Lido
Welsh Cymru South
13.02.26	Afan Lido - Newport City	0:1 ✺
30.01.26	Pontypridd United - Afan Lido	2:0 ✺
23.01.26	Afan Lido - Carmarthen Town	0:1 ✺
30.12.25	Afan Lido - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
26.12.25	Baglan Dragons - Afan Lido	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Trethomas Bluebirds
Welsh Cymru South
13.02.26	Ammanford - Trethomas Bluebirds	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Cwmbran Celtic	2:0 ✺
23.01.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Caerau Ely	1:5 ✺
09.01.26	Trefelin - Trethomas Bluebirds	3:1 ✺
26.12.25	Treowen Stars - Trethomas Bluebirds	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 TWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
22.08.25	Trethomas Bluebirds - Afan Lido	3:2
04.04.25	Afan Lido - Trethomas Bluebirds	1:0
11.10.24	Trethomas Bluebirds - Afan Lido	3:2

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