Match Info

FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 28

Date: 19 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Stade François Coty (Ajaccio)

Referee: Stinat J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Cyprus	Nova Sports
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1
France	Amazon Prime Video
Greece	Nova Sports
Hungary	Arena 4
Italy	Sky Sport Football, Sky Sport
Poland	Eleven Sports 2
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport
United-kingdom	BT Sport
World	Setanta Sports Eurasia


	Ajaccio		Monaco

	1	X	2
	6	3.6	1.6	Watch
	6	3.75	1.61
	5.8	3.85	1.61
	5.5	3.7	1.61
	6.51	3.93	1.62
	6	3.7	1.6
	5.75	3.85	1.62	Watch
	6.2	3.95	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.97 ↑ (4.65)	3.79 ↑ (3.66)	1.61 ↓ (1.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ajaccio
15.9%

Draw
25.1%

Monaco
59%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.3%

25.8%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.6%

26.2%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Monaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Monaco's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Monaco than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Monaco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.9%	5.3%	90.8%

Ajaccio - Monaco Predictions

Users Predictions: Monaco will win (69 of 76 users predict this - 90.79%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.29% – 97.29%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Group Stage)).

Ajaccio has the most likely position - 19 (32.3%), project points - 31, currently - 21, a good chance of relegated (84%), not chance of qualify for ucl.

Monaco has the most likely position - 4 (23.68%), project points - 69, currently - 51, not chance of relegated, a chance of qualify for ucl (30%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 57, importance 52, match rating 55. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

The competitors look crappy now.

In this match Monaco is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 1
12.03.23	Ajaccio - Montpellier	0:1 ✺
05.03.23	Reims - Ajaccio	1:0 ✺
26.02.23	Ajaccio - Troyes	2:1 ✺
19.02.23	Lorient - Ajaccio	3:0 ✺
10.02.23	Nice - Ajaccio	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLL
- AS Monaco
French Ligue 1
12.03.23	Monaco - Reims	0:1 ✺
05.03.23	Troyes - Monaco	2:2 ✺
26.02.23	Monaco - Nice	0:3 ✺
UEFA Europa League
23.02.23	Monaco - Bayer Leverkusen	2:4 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
19.02.23	Brest - Monaco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
15.01.23	Monaco - Ajaccio	7:1
Coupe De France
06.01.17	Monaco - Ajaccio	2:1
French Ligue 1
26.04.14	Ajaccio - Monaco	1:4
08.12.13	Monaco - Ajaccio	1:0

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