Match Info

Date: 26 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Francisco Zarco (Durango)

Referee: Solorio Arreola H. (Mex)


	Alacranes de Durango		Celaya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.4	2.95	2.7
	2.4	3.1	2.85
	2.44	3	2.7
	2.57	3.2	2.92
	2.45	2.88	2.8
	2.45	3.15	2.81	Watch
	2.48	3.1	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↓ (3.13)	3.05 ↓ (3.13)	2.79 ↑ (2.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alacranes de Durango
37.3%

Draw
30%

Celaya
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.2%

30.4%

43.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alacranes de Durango's performance.

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celaya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-9.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alacranes de Durango that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celaya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	37.5%	37.5%

Alacranes de Durango - Celaya Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alacranes de Durango will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Celaya will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Celaya: 4% – 71%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

1st leg.

Now both teams are in good shape.

Celaya could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alacranes de Durango won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Alacranes de Durango won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
21.10.22	Dorados - Alacranes de Durango	1:3 ✺
14.10.22	Alacranes de Durango - Mineros de Zacatecas	4:1 ✺
05.10.22	Alacranes de Durango - Atlético Morelia	2:2 ✺
28.09.22	Cancún - Alacranes de Durango	0:0 ✺
25.09.22	Alacranes de Durango - Celaya	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WWTTT
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
16.10.22	Celaya - Correcaminos UAT	0:3 ✺
04.10.22	Leones Negros UdeG - Celaya	0:2 ✺
28.09.22	Celaya - Atlante	2:1 ✺
25.09.22	Alacranes de Durango - Celaya	1:1 ✺
21.09.22	Celaya - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.09.22	Alacranes de Durango - Celaya	1:1

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