The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Albacete Balompié 47%
Draw 28.5%
Ponferradina 24.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.3%
30.3%
32.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.8%
30.7%
32.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Albacete Balompié has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Albacete Balompié's performance.
Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponferradina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albacete Balompié than the current prediction. (-10.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Albacete Balompié that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+8.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponferradina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
55%
10%
35%
Albacete Balompié - Ponferradina Predictions
Users Predictions:
20 users predict this event. Albacete will win (votes: 11 - 55%). Ponferradina will win (votes: 7 - 35%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%). Confidence interval (95%) for Albacete: 33.2% – 76.8%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Preview
Albacete has the most likely position - 16 (6.14%), has project points - 53, has currently - 10, has a chance of relegated (22%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (12%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (1%).
Ponferradina has the most likely position - 22 (6.88%), has project points - 51, has currently - 6, has a chance of relegated (27%), has a small chance of prom. playoffs (10%), has a very small chance of promoted (5%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality29, importance32, match rating31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Albacete won 1.
Albacete is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Recent matches Ponferradina is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Albacete could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Albacete will have a mini benefit in this match.
Last 8 head-to-head matches Albacete won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.
Including matches at home between the teams Albacete won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.
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