Match Info

J1 League - Round 7

Date: 29 March 2025, Saturday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Albirex Niigata		Gamba Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.4	3.4	2.88	Watch
	2.65	3.1	2.65
	2.47	3.16	2.77	Watch
	2.52	3.5	2.77
	2.51	3.25	2.9	Watch
	2.6	3.1	2.62
	2.51	3.24	2.94	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 (2.52)	3.24 ↓ (3.3)	2.79 ↑ (2.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
37.3%

Draw
29%

Gamba Osaka
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

28.5%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

30.1%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Albirex Niigata have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Albirex Niigata - Gamba Osaka Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujita K. (G) 25. Fujiwara S. 5. Fitzgerald M. 35. Chiba K. 42. Hashimoto K. 16. Komi Y. 8. Miyamoto E. 6. Akiyama H. 7. Taniguchi K. 99. Ono Y. 41. Hasegawa M.	22. Ichimori J. (G) 3. Handa R. 20. Nakatani S. 67. Sasaki S. 4. Kurokawa K. 16. Suzuki T. 27. Mito R. 47. Juan Alano 51. Mitsuta M. 10. Kurata S. 11. Jebali I.
Substitutes
2. Geria J. 15. Hayakawa F. 46. Kasai K. 4. Okamoto S. 30. Okumura J. 33. Takagi Y. 18. Wakatsuki Y. 9. Yamura K. 23. Yoshimitsu D. (G)	2. Fukuoka S. 1. Higashiguchi M. (G) 23. Hummet D. 15. Kishimoto T. 6. Lavi N. 33. Nakano S. 38. Nawata G. 40. Toyama S. 7. Usami T.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Poyatos D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Hasegawa M. ⚽, Ono Y. (A),
43', 1 - 1, Jebali I. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Mito R. ↓, Lavi N. ↑,
46', Taniguchi K. ↓, Okumura J. ↑,
66', Ono Y. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,
67', 1 - 2, Jebali I. ⚽, Juan Alano (A),
70', Juan Alano ↓, Toyama S. ↑,
70', Jebali I. ↓, Hummet D. ↑,
74', 2 - 2, Okumura J. ⚽, Hashimoto K. (A),
80', Kurata S. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
82', 3 - 2, Yamura K. ⚽, Komi Y. (A),
89', Chiba K. ↓, Geria J. ↑,
90+1', Hasegawa M. ↓, Kasai K. ↑,
90+7', 3 - 3, Usami T. (Pen),

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Niigata won 1.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Gamba Osaka have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Miura G. (Knee Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Niigata won 2 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 13:28 (average 0.8:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Niigata won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8:13 (average 1:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Albirex Niigata - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 37.27%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Albirex Niigata	1:2 penalties ✺
Japan J1 League
15.03.25	Machida Zelvia - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
08.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy	2:2 ✺
02.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	2:2 ✺
26.02.25	Kashima Antlers - Albirex Niigata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLTTL
- Gamba Osaka
Japan J League Cup
20.03.25	Kochi United - Gamba Osaka	1:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
16.03.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Gamba Osaka	2:0 ✺
08.03.25	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 ✺
02.03.25	Tokyo Verdy - Gamba Osaka	0:1 ✺
26.02.25	Fagiano Okayama - Gamba Osaka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
30.11.24	Albirex Niigata - Gamba Osaka	0:1
02.03.24	Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata	1:0
17.09.23	Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata	1:1
28.05.23	Albirex Niigata - Gamba Osaka	1:3
14.10.17	Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata	0:1
01.04.17	Albirex Niigata - Gamba Osaka	2:3
29.10.16	Gamba Osaka - Albirex Niigata	3:1

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