Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - First stage - 1/16-finals

Date: 21 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 7


	Albirex Niigata		Tokyo Verdy

	1	X	2
	2.7	3	2.8	Watch
	2.6	2.85	2.55
	2.55	3.05	2.9	Watch
	2.62	3.05	3.07
	2.58	2.89	3.02	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.88
	2.53	3.1	2.92	Watch
	2.55	3.05	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↓ (2.58)	2.99 ↑ (2.9)	2.88 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
36.3%

Draw
31.3%

Tokyo Verdy
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

32.3%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

32.6%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Albirex Niigata have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	50%	10%

Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Albirex Niigata (votes: 3 - 60%). Tokyo Verdy (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fujita K. (G) 15. Hayakawa F. 4. Okamoto S. 35. Chiba K. 42. Hashimoto K. 28. Ota S. 33. Takagi Y. 8. Miyamoto E. 7. Taniguchi K. 16. Komi Y. 13. Ochiai R.	21. Nagasawa Y. (G) 15. Suzuki K. 2. Fukazawa D. 23. Tsunashima Y. 19. Matsuhashi Y. 16. Hirakawa R. 20. Meshino S. 40. Arai Y. 11. Yamami H. 37. Kawasaki S. 10. Kimura Y.
Substitutes
41. Hasegawa M. 31. Horigome Y. 19. Hoshi Y. 20. Miguel 38. Mori K. 30. Okumura J. 21. Tashiro R. (G) 18. Wakatsuki Y. 9. Yamura K.	17. Inami T. 25. Kumatoriya I. 31. Mawatari H. (G) 7. Morita K. 22. Onaga H. 8. Saito K. 27. Shirai R. 9. Someno I. 3. Taniguchi H.
Coaches
Kimori D.	Hiroshi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
7', 0 - 1, Kimura Y. ⚽,
32', 0 - 2, Kawasaki S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ota S. ↓, Okumura J. ↑,
46', Ochiai R. ↓, Hasegawa M. ↑,
58', Matsuhashi Y. ↓, Onaga H. ↑,
58', Arai Y. ↓, Taniguchi H. ↑,
64', Yamami H. ↓, Saito K. ↑,
64', Kimura Y. ↓, Someno I. ↑,
71', Miyamoto E. ↓, Miguel ↑,
71', Takagi Y. ↓, Hoshi Y. ↑,
75', Chiba K. 🟨,
76', Kawasaki S. ↓, Morita K. ↑,
82', Taniguchi K. ↓, Yamura K. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Tokyo Verdy may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:22. (average 2.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:12. (average 2.4:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
18.05.25	Fagiano Okayama - Albirex Niigata	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds	1:1 ✺
03.05.25	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo	2:3 ✺
29.04.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Albirex Niigata	0:1 ✺
26.04.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Albirex Niigata	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 LTLWT
- Tokyo Verdy
Japan J1 League
17.05.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Tokyo Verdy	2:1 ✺
11.05.25	Tokyo Verdy - Shonan Bellmare	0:2 ✺
06.05.25	Tokyo Verdy - Yokohama FC	2:0 ✺
03.05.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Tokyo Verdy	2:0 ✺
29.04.25	Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
08.03.25	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy	2:2
23.10.24	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy	0:2
16.03.24	Tokyo Verdy - Albirex Niigata	2:2
Japan J2 League
15.10.22	Tokyo Verdy - Albirex Niigata	1:0
08.05.22	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy	4:3
19.09.21	Tokyo Verdy - Albirex Niigata	1:3
27.03.21	Albirex Niigata - Tokyo Verdy	7:0

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