Match Info

J1 League - Round 29

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Denka Big Swan Stadium (Niigata)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Albirex Niigata		Shimizu S-Pulse

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.25	2.85	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.4
	2.32	3.25	2.92
	2.9	3.49	2.52
	2.49	3.17	2.88	Watch
	2.8	3.25	2.4
	2.43	3.36	2.91	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.85)	3.29 ↓ (3.32)	2.7 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
36.4%

Draw
28.6%

Shimizu S-Pulse
34.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

28.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

28.6%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

Shimizu S-Pulse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Albirex Niigata - Shimizu S Pulse Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Albirex Niigata will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Shimizu will win (votes: 6 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shimizu: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Albirex Niigata (votes: 2 - 50%). Shimizu (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Albirex Niigata (2.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Albirex Niigata (votes: 3 - 60%). Shimizu (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Tashiro R. (G) 25. Fujiwara S. 5. Fitzgerald M. 77. Funaki K. 31. Horigome Y. 8. Shirai E. 22. Arai T. 55. Moraes 41. Hasegawa M. 14. Ohara M. 65. Boudah A.	16. Umeda T. (G) 66. Sumiyoshi J. 24. Kim Min-Tae 4. Hasukawa S. 28. Yoshida Y. 17. Yumiba M. 98. Matheus Bueno 14. Yamahara R. 11. Nakahara H. 38. Takahashi T. 33. Inui T.
Substitutes
2. Geria J. 42. Hashimoto K. 30. Okumura J. 28. Shimamura T. 33. Takagi Y. 7. Taniguchi K. 50. Uemura H. 18. Wakatsuki Y. 23. Yoshimitsu D. (G)	15. Chiba K. 41. Haneda K. 5. Kitazume K. 8. Kozuka K. 19. Matsuzaki K. 6. Miyamoto K. 1. Oki Y. (G) 70. Takagi S. 21. Yajima S.
Coaches
Irie T.	Akiba T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', 0 - 1, Inui T. ⚽, Yamahara R. (A),
31', Yamahara R. 🟨,
39', Ohara M. 🟨,
40', Takahashi T. 🟨,
44', Yumiba M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
57', Yumiba M. ↓, Yajima S. ↑,
57', Nakahara H. ↓, Matsuzaki K. ↑,
65', Ohara M. ↓, Okumura J. ↑,
65', Moraes ↓, Shimamura T. ↑,
76', Arai T. ↓, Uemura H. ↑,
83', Horigome Y. 🟨,
84', Yamahara R. ↓, Takagi S. ↑,
84', Takahashi T. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,
86', Boudah A. ↓, Taniguchi K. ↑,
86', Horigome Y. ↓, Hashimoto K. ↑,
90+8', Yoshida Y. ↓, Kitazume K. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 1.

Niigata has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Shimizu is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Niigata: Danilo Gomes (Knee Injury) Hoshi Y. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Shimizu: Kitagawa K. (Yellow Cards) Takahashi Y. (Knee Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Niigata won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:12. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Niigata won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.2:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Albirex Niigata - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.98%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata
Japan J1 League
31.08.25	Urawa Red Diamonds - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Albirex Niigata - Kashima Antlers	1:2 ✺
16.08.25	Albirex Niigata - Kawasaki Frontale	1:1 ✺
11.08.25	Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata	3:1 ✺
20.07.25	Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLTLL
- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
31.08.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kashima Antlers	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
17.08.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Honda FC	0:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
16.08.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:3 ✺
10.08.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
22.02.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Albirex Niigata	2:0
25.11.17	Shimizu S-Pulse - Albirex Niigata	2:3
11.03.17	Albirex Niigata - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:2
16.08.15	Shimizu S-Pulse - Albirex Niigata	1:1
14.03.15	Albirex Niigata - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0
22.10.14	Shimizu S-Pulse - Albirex Niigata	2:1
06.05.14	Albirex Niigata - Shimizu S-Pulse	2:1

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