Match Info

J1 League - Round 7

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Best Denki Stadium (Fukuoka)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Avispa Fukuoka		Shimizu S-Pulse

	1	X	2
	3	3.3	2.3	Watch
	2.92	3.2	2.32	Watch
	3.06	3.45	2.42
	2.97	3.39	2.38	Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.45
	2.63	3.22	2.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.42)	3.28 ↑ (3.16)	2.42 ↓ (3.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avispa Fukuoka
32.5%

Draw
28.7%

Shimizu S-Pulse
38.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.1%

29.9%

31%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

31.2%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avispa Fukuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avispa Fukuoka's form might have worsened.

Shimizu S-Pulse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shimizu S-Pulse's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avispa Fukuoka than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shimizu S-Pulse than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Shimizu S-Pulse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	33.3%	22.2%

Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S Pulse Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Shimizu will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Avispa Fukuoka: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Shimizu (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Avispa Fukuoka (votes: 1 - 50%). Shimizu (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Obata Y. (G) 16. Oka T. 37. Tashiro M. 15. Tsujioka Y. 47. Hashimoto Y. 6. Shigemi M. 11. Miki T. (C) 29. Maejima Y. 18. Sato S. 25. Kitajima Y. 13. Ben Khalifa N.	16. Umeda T. (G) 5. Kitazume K. 51. Sumiyoshi J. 15. Honda Y. 28. Yoshida Y. 6. Uno Z. (C) 10. Matheus Bueno 81. Kozuka K. 49. Kitagawa K. 9. Oh Se-Hun 7. Capixaba
Substitutes
22. Fujimoto K. 41. Fujita K. (G) 14. Nago S. 3. Nara T. 32. Sani Brown A. 28. Tsuruno R. 33. Yamawaki K. 9. Zahedi S.	23. Chiba K. 21. Matsuzaki K. 11. Nakahara H. 97. Ohata R. 1. Oki Y. (G) 50. Stephens A. 70. Takagi S. 38. Takahashi T. 17. Yumiba M.
Coaches
Tsukahara S.	Yoshida T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Kozuka K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sato S. ↓, Maeda K. ↑,
55', Kozuka K. ↓, Matsuzaki K. ↑,
58', Kitajima Y. ↓, Nago S. ↑,
58', Ben Khalifa N. ↓, Sani Brown A. ↑,
59', 0 - 1, Kitazume K. ⚽, Kitagawa K. (A),
67', Sani Brown A. 🟨,
71', Shigemi M. ↓, Fujimoto K. ↑,
73', Kitazume K. ↓, Takagi S. ↑,
80', Maejima Y. ↓, Zahedi S. ↑,
86', 1 - 1, Zahedi S. ⚽, Nago S. (A),
86', Honda Y. ↓, Ohata R. ↑,
86', Kitagawa K. ↓, Chiba K. ↑,
86', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Takahashi T. ↑,
90+7', Nara T. 🟨,
Penalties (4 - 5)
1, Uno Z. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Nago S. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Matheus Bueno (Penalty Awarded),
2, Hashimoto Y. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Chiba K. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Miki T. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Capixaba (Penalty Awarded),
4, Maeda K. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Takahashi T. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Zahedi S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Takagi S. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Tsujioka Y. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Matsuzaki K. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Fujimoto K. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 1.

Avispa Fukuoka is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Shimizu's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Avispa Fukuoka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Shimizu: Takahashi Y. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Shimizu: Park Seung-Wook (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Avispa Fukuoka won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:13. (average 1.1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Avispa Fukuoka won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Avispa Fukuoka: 0.71% Shimizu S-Pulse: 0.65%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Avispa Fukuoka	4	1	0	3	6:6	0	3
16	Shimizu S-Pulse	4	1	0	3	1:3	-2	3

Last Results with these Odds

Avispa Fukuoka - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 39.07%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avispa Fukuoka
Japan J1 League
15.03.26	V-Varen Nagasaki - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0 ✺
07.03.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Nagoya Grampus	1:5 ✺
27.02.26	Vissel Kobe - Avispa Fukuoka	2:1 ✺
22.02.26	Kyoto Sanga - Avispa Fukuoka	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Avispa Fukuoka - Cerezo Osaka	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Shimizu S-Pulse
Japan J1 League
14.03.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Fagiano Okayama	2:1 penalties ✺
07.03.26	Cerezo Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:0 penalties ✺
28.02.26	Gamba Osaka - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:2 penalties ✺
21.02.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Vissel Kobe	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Shimizu S-Pulse - Kyoto Sanga	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
23.08.25	Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S-Pulse	0:0
20.04.25	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	3:1
17.09.22	Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S-Pulse	3:2
18.06.22	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	3:1
02.10.21	Avispa Fukuoka - Shimizu S-Pulse	1:2
06.03.21	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	2:2
Japan Emperors Cup
14.08.19	Shimizu S-Pulse - Avispa Fukuoka	1:0

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