Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE - ROUND 37

Date: 7 January 2023, Saturday

Location: Recreation Ground (Aldershot)


	Aldershot Town		Notts County

	1	X	2
	8.5	4.75	1.36
	6.5	4.6	1.35
	6.4	4.5	1.4
	6.8	4.8	1.36
	7.66	5.28	1.37
	7.5	4.6	1.33
	7.5	5.1	1.35
	6.8	4.9	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.21 ↑ (5.8)	4.82 ↑ (3.9)	1.36 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aldershot Town
12.8%

Draw
19.2%

Notts County
68%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.7%

23.4%

60.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.8%

23.5%

60.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aldershot Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Notts County has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Notts County's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aldershot Town than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Notts County than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Notts County, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Aldershot Town - Notts County Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Aldershot will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Notts County will win (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 19 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aldershot won 3.

Recent matches Aldershot is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Notts County in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Notts County is indisputable favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Aldershot won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 10-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Aldershot won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aldershot Town
English National League
01.01.23	Woking - Aldershot Town	4:1 ✺
26.12.22	Aldershot Town - Woking	1:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
20.12.22	Aldershot Town - Welling United	3:0 ✺
English National League
03.12.22	Gateshead - Aldershot Town	0:2 ✺
26.11.22	Aldershot Town - Southend United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LLWWW
- Notts County
English National League
01.01.23	Oldham Athletic - Notts County	2:2 ✺
26.12.22	Notts County - Oldham Athletic	4:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
20.12.22	Notts County - Chorley	2:1 ✺
English National League
13.12.22	Notts County - Gateshead	2:0 ✺
10.12.22	Maidenhead United - Notts County	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
13.09.22	Notts County - Aldershot Town	2:0
30.04.22	Aldershot Town - Notts County	3:1
04.09.21	Notts County - Aldershot Town	3:2
30.03.21	Notts County - Aldershot Town	0:1
07.11.20	Aldershot Town - Notts County	1:0
10.03.20	Notts County - Aldershot Town	3:1
23.11.19	Aldershot Town - Notts County	2:1

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