Match Info

MEXICO: Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Play In - Semi-finals

Date: 17 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Tecnológico de Oaxaca (Oaxaca de Juárez)

Referee: Arce V. (Mex)


	Alebrijes de Oaxaca		Cimarrones de Sonora

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.65	3.2	2.3
	2.8	3.4	2.35	Watch
	2.92	3.27	2.49
	2.93	3.27	2.49
	2.62	3.4	2.3
	2.78	3.37	2.36	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.25)	3.31 ↓ (3.33)	2.37 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alebrijes de Oaxaca
33.2%

Draw
27.9%

Cimarrones de Sonora
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

27.8%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

26.8%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alebrijes de Oaxaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alebrijes de Oaxaca's form might have worsened.

Cimarrones de Sonora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cimarrones de Sonora's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alebrijes de Oaxaca than the current prediction. (+9.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alebrijes de Oaxaca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cimarrones de Sonora, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	25%	50%

Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Cimarrones de Sonora Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Alebrijes de Oaxaca will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Cimarrones de Sonora will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Paz Vasquez O. (G) 4. Martinez J. 6. Luna A. 16. Santos E. 7. Gomez J. 8. Morales F. 12. Torres Rodriguez R. D. 31. Lopez F. 9. Gonzalez Sandoval A. 19. Ballesteros O. 29. Franco J.	30. Espinoza G. (G) 3. Manriquez S. 4. Monreal E. 5. Reyna M. 24. Rodriguez J. 6. Arellano A. 14. Monarrez F. 17. Cisneros D. 10. Tejeda D. 7. Peralta J. 172. Orrantia E.
Substitutes
13. Chavez L. (G) 5. Esqueda Romero J. A. 30. Garcia B. 17. Guerrero Zavala C. E. 11. Loera K. 25. Mayo Canul M. A. 21. Minota V. 22. Ochoa Sanchez J. A. 35. Ruiz Fajardo R. 15. Vargas H.	8. Acuna F. 26. Aguirre C. 11. Jimenez D. 16. Lopez D. 9. Lopez J. 146. Meza F. 20. Navarro B. 23. Reyes J. 86. Silva O. 134. Valenzuela J. (G)
Coaches
Gutierrez C.	Hernandez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Tejeda D. 🟨,
30', Monreal E. 🟨,
44', Torres Rodriguez R. D. 🟨,
45+2', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Orrantia E. ↓, Jimenez D. ↑,
50', 0 - 1, Manriquez S. ⚽,
55', Morales F. ↓, Ochoa Sanchez J. A. ↑,
55', Gonzalez Sandoval A. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
64', Martinez J. 🟨,
65', Jimenez D. (Pen),
66', Manriquez S. 🟨,
68', Monarrez F. ↓, Navarro B. ↑,
68', Tejeda D. ↓, Acuna F. ↑,
70', 1 - 1, Ochoa Sanchez J. A. ⚽,
72', Franco J. 🟨,
77', Manriquez S. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
77', Rodriguez J. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
78', Franco J. ↓, Minota V. ↑,
87', Espinoza G. 🟨,
87', 🟨,
87', Martinez J. ↓, Esqueda Romero J. A. ↑,
Penalties (6 - 5)
1, Monreal E. (Pen),
1, Ballesteros O. (Pen),
2, Lopez D. (Pen),
2, Lopez F. (Pen),
3, Acuna F. (Pen),
3, Gomez J. (Pen),
4, Navarro B. (Pen),
4, Esqueda Romero J. A. (Pen),
5, Peralta J. (Pen),
5, Torres Rodriguez R. D. (Pen),
6, Cisneros D. (Pen),
6, Garcia B. (Pen),

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Play ~ In: ) and 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Play ~ In: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 0.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Cimarrones de Sonora could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 6 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 9 matches and goals 24-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14-12.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
13.04.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Atlético Morelia	3:3 ✺
02.04.24	Dorados - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:3 ✺
26.03.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:0 ✺
22.03.24	Atlético La Paz - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	2:1 ✺
19.03.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWWLT
- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
02.04.24	Cimarrones de Sonora - Atlético La Paz	2:1 ✺
27.03.24	Correcaminos UAT - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:2 ✺
24.03.24	Cimarrones de Sonora - Celaya	0:1 ✺
20.03.24	Venados - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:0 ✺
13.03.24	Cimarrones de Sonora - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
23.01.24	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:2
23.08.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:2
28.03.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:0
22.07.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:1
30.04.22	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Cimarrones de Sonora	0:0
26.04.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:3
16.02.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	0:1

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