Match Info

Date: 22 January 2022, Saturday


	Alessandria		Benevento

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.3	1.9	Watch
	3.8	3.25	1.98
	3.85	3.25	2	Watch
	3.85	3.2	1.95
	4.17	3.48	1.99
	4	3.2	1.95
	4.55	3.08	1.98	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.96 ↑ (3.09)	3.25 ↓ (3.31)	1.96 ↓ (2.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alessandria
23.6%

Draw
28.8%

Benevento
47.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.9%

28%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.4%

21%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alessandria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alessandria's form might have worsened.

Benevento has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Benevento's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alessandria than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benevento than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Benevento could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alessandria - Benevento Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Serie B (Play Out) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Alessandria has the most likely position - 16 (17.56%), has project points - 39, has currently - 17, has a chance of relegated (41%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Benevento has the most likely position - 2 (13.12%), has project points - 66, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (63%), has a chance of promoted (37%), has a small chance of win league (12%).

Recent matches Alessandria is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Benevento is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Benevento could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Benevento will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alessandria won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alessandria 1912
Italian Serie B
19.12.21	Alessandria - Parma	0:2 ✺
12.12.21	Reggina - Alessandria	0:4 ✺
05.12.21	Alessandria - Cittadella	0:1 ✺
30.11.21	Pordenone - Alessandria	2:0 ✺
27.11.21	Alessandria - Cremonese	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LWLLW
- Benevento Calcio
Italian Serie B
16.01.22	SPAL - Benevento	1:1 ✺
13.01.22	Benevento - Monza	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.12.21	Fiorentina - Benevento	2:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
10.12.21	Ternana - Benevento	0:2 ✺
04.12.21	Benevento - Pordenone	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
22.08.21	Benevento - Alessandria	4:3

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