Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Arsenio Erico (Asunción)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2, Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
North-central-america	ESPN 3 North
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	beIN Sports
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Nacional Asuncion		Alianza Lima

	1	X	2
	2.2	3	3.25	Watch
	2.3	2.95	3.5
	2.25	3	3.4	Watch
	2.27	2.96	3.66
	2.27	3.02	3.6	Watch
	2.25	2.9	3.4	Watch
	2.23	3.12	3.52	Watch
	2.25	3	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (1.84)	2.99 ↓ (3.4)	3.47 ↓ (4.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nacional Asuncion
41.6%

Draw
31.3%

Alianza Lima
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.9%

27.6%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nacional Asuncion's form might have worsened.

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alianza Lima's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Nacional Asuncion - Alianza Lima Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Alianza Lima will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Rojas S. (G) 21. Franco F. 14. Nunez C. 23. Monteagudo J. 5. Benitez G. 13. Meza L. 6. Alfaro J. F. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 8. Arrua C. 7. Duarte D. 11. Caballero G.	23. Viscarra G. (G) 4. Noriega E. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 10. Ceppelini P. 22. Enrique G. 8. Castillo E. 34. Paolo Guerrero 27. Quevedo K.
Substitutes
4. Alfaro J. L. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 24. Espinola C. 20. Gomez A. 40. Jara F. 28. Martinez A. 32. Morel F. 16. Ortiz C. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 15. Rodriguez Trezza L. 29. Vargas S.	28. Aguirre G. 17. Archimbaud J. P. 9. Barcos H. 1. Campos A. (G) 19. Cantero A. 15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 7. Gaibor F. 44. Gomez C. 13. Lagos R. 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.
Coaches
Bernay V.	Gorosito N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Caballero G. ⚽, Gaona Lugo O. (A),
12', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
25', Caballero G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Arrua C. ↓, Morel F. ↑,
46', Duarte D. ↓, Martinez A. ↑,
59', Meza L. 🟨,
70', Paolo Guerrero ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
70', Quevedo K. ↓, Cantero A. ↑,
75', Castillo E. 🟨,
76', Meza L. ↓, Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↑,
76', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
79', Trauco M. ↓, Archimbaud J. P. ↑,
79', Zambrano C. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
79', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
90+9', 1 - 1, Barcos H. (Pen),
90+10', Noriega E. 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Nacional will have a mini benefit in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.02.25	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	3:1 ✺
29.01.25	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:3 ✺
25.01.25	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Copa Paraguay
06.12.24	Libertad Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
29.11.24	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTLT
- Alianza Lima
Club Friendly
30.01.25	Alianza Lima - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
25.01.25	LDU Quito - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
21.01.25	Deportivo Morón - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
12.01.25	Alianza Lima - Emelec	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
03.11.24	Alianza Lima - Cusco	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WTLWL

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