Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Maza P. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, TOD
Australia	beIN Sports 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 8
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	ESPN 2
Peru	ESPN
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
Spain	beIN Sports
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, Fanatiz
Venezuela	ESPN, Inter
World	Disney+, Pluto TV


	Alianza Lima		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.4	6	Watch
	1.66	3.4	6	Watch
	1.63	3.5	6.69
	1.63	3.54	6.44	Watch
	1.62	3.5	5.8	Watch
	1.62	3.54	6.52	Watch
	1.66	3.4	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.78)	3.47 ↑ (3.25)	6.21 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
57.8%

Draw
27.1%

Nacional Asuncion
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

28.2%

20.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Lima's performance.

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nacional Asuncion might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Alianza Lima - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Viscarra G. (G) 22. Enrique G. 5. Zambrano C. 6. Garces R. 21. Trauco M. 4. Noriega E. 8. Castillo E. 20. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 10. Ceppelini P. 27. Quevedo K. 9. Barcos H.	30. Rojas S. (G) 21. Franco F. 14. Nunez C. (C) 23. Monteagudo J. 5. Benitez G. 13. Meza L. 6. Alfaro J. F. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 18. Quintana S. 11. Caballero G. 7. Duarte D.
Substitutes
28. Aguirre G. 1. Campos A. (G) 15. Castillo J. 11. D'Arrigo J. 7. Gaibor F. 44. Gomez C. 13. Lagos R. 34. Paolo Guerrero 16. Succar M. 35. Velasquez J.	4. Alfaro J. L. 8. Arrua C. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 24. Espinola C. 20. Gomez A. 40. Jara F. 32. Morel F. 16. Ortiz C. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 17. Recalde J. 29. Vargas S.
Coaches
Gorosito N.	Sarabia P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Quevedo K. ⚽,
16', 1 - 1, Gaona Lugo O. ⚽, Monteagudo J. (A),
43', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Gaibor F. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', 2 - 1, Barcos H. ⚽, Castillo E. (A),
55', 3 - 1, Quevedo K. ⚽, Enrique G. (A),
65', Quintana S. ↓, Arrua C. ↑,
69', Meza L. 🟨,
73', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Recalde J. ↑,
73', Duarte D. ↓, Morel F. ↑,
74', Ceppelini P. ↓, Archimbaud J. P. ↑,
74', Barcos H. ↓, Paolo Guerrero ↑,
84', Arrua C. 🟨,
85', Castillo E. ↓, D'Arrigo J. ↑,
85', Quevedo K. ↓, Lagos R. ↑,
85', Meza L. ↓, Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↑,
85', Caballero G. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
86', Lagos R. 🟨,
87', Paolo Guerrero 🟨,
89', Benitez G. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-1.

Recent matches Alianza Lima is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Nacional is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Nacional could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Alianza Lima is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alianza Lima won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
08.02.25	Alianza Lima - Cusco	3:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.02.25	Nacional Asuncion - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.01.25	Alianza Lima - SD Aucas	2:0 ✺
25.01.25	LDU Quito - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
21.01.25	Deportivo Morón - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 WTWTL
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
08.02.25	Deportivo Recoleta - Nacional Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.02.25	Nacional Asuncion - Alianza Lima	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
01.02.25	Cerro Porteño - Nacional Asuncion	3:1 ✺
29.01.25	Nacional Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	0:3 ✺
25.01.25	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 LTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
05.02.25	Nacional Asuncion - Alianza Lima	1:1

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