Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 23 May 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Heraclio Tapia (Huánuco)

Referee: Palomino M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco		FBC Melgar

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.25	2	Watch
	3.6	3.25	1.88
	3.6	3.45	2.02	Watch
	3.53	3.37	2.11
	3.58	3.33	2.06	Watch
	3.75	3.3	1.95
	3.74	3.48	2.06	Watch
	3.6	3.45	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.64 ↑ (3.6)	3.36 ↓ (3.7)	2.01 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
25.7%

Draw
27.8%

FBC Melgar
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26%

25.3%

48.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

25.2%

48.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	0%	62.5%

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Alianza Universidad will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Melgar will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Alianza Universidad (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ynamine P. (G) 28. Perleche A. 6. Ibarguen J. 3. Ampuero A. 19. Mendieta J. 33. Otavio Gut 17. Mena Y. (C) 8. Lliuya M. 38. Sernaque J. 22. Campodonico R. 29. Escobar J.	21. Cabezudo J. (G) 4. Ramos E. 2. Barrios P. 6. Gonzalez L. 13. Llontop M. 15. Orzan H. (C) 10. Martinez T. 24. Tandazo W. 28. Arias A. 26. Cabrera Nakamura K. G. 17. Liza P.
Substitutes
21. Aoki A. 12. Figueroa E. (G) 14. Guevara B. 32. Leguia F. 10. Oliva E. 15. Ramirez N. 50. Ramos C. 90. Rodriguez C. 11. Vasquez Ortega E. O.	20. Bernaola G. 27. Cabanillas N. 12. Caceda C. (G) 11. Castro F. 5. Deneumostier A. 8. Guzman L. 33. Lazo M. 19. Rodriguez G. 22. Vivanco P.
Coaches
Bermudez Tucto M.	Ribonetto W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Escobar J. ⚽,
14', Ramos E. 🟨,
20', Mena Y. 🟨,
28', Ribonetto W. 🟨,
45+7', Ramos C. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Arias A. ↓, Guzman L. ↑,
46', Ramos E. ↓, Lazo M. ↑,
46', Sernaque J. ↓, Aoki A. ↑,
47', Ampuero A. 🟨,
49', Liza P. 🟨,
58', Martinez T. ↓, Castro F. ↑,
62', Escobar J. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,
64', Lliuya M. ↓, Oliva E. ↑,
72', Tandazo W. ↓, Vivanco P. ↑,
77', Llontop M. ↓, Rodriguez G. ↑,
79', Ynamine P. 🟨,
83', Guzman L. 🟨,
84', Gonzalez L. 🟨,
90+1', Aoki A. 🟨,
90+1', Aoki A. ↓, Vasquez Ortega E. O. ↑,
90+11', Lazo M. 🟨,
90+12', 1 - 1, Cabrera Nakamura K. G. (Pen),

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 19 and 2).

Alianza Universidad has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Melgar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alianza Universidad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melgar is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Melgar: Bordacahar C. (Knee Injury) Cuesta B. (Knee Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Alianza Universidad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.5:1.8).

Including home match between the teams, Alianza Universidad won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 1
19.05.25	Alianza Lima - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Sport Huancayo	0:1 ✺
04.05.25	Sport Boys - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	4:2 ✺
17.04.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Cienciano - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLLTW
- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
18.05.25	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
13.05.25	Academia Puerto Cabello - FBC Melgar	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
10.05.25	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
06.05.25	FBC Melgar - Lanús	0:1 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
01.05.25	FBC Melgar - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
09.08.21	FBC Melgar - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:0
28.09.20	FBC Melgar - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	1:0
06.10.19	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - FBC Melgar	2:1
20.04.19	FBC Melgar - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	2:0

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