Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Monumental Virgen de Chapi (Arequipa)

Referee: Huaman D. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


Peru	Liga 1 Play, Movistar TV App


	FBC Melgar		Atlético Grau

	1	X	2
	1.4	3.9	8.5	Watch
	1.43	4	7.9
	1.41	4.25	7.56
	1.42	4.39	7.6	Watch
	1.4	3.9	7.5
	1.41	4.15	8.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.35)	4.1 ↓ (4.72)	7.86 ↓ (8.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

FBC Melgar
65.6%

Draw
22.6%

Atlético Grau
11.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

19.8%

11.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

15.5%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

FBC Melgar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Atlético Grau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for FBC Melgar than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with FBC Melgar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Cabezudo J. (G) 4. Ramos A. (C) 23. Escobar J. 90. Jesus Alcantar 45. Zegarra M. 6. Salas J. 8. Guzman L. 10. Quagliata N. 80. D'Arrigo J. 17. De Santis J. 22. Erustes P.	1. Alvarez P. (C) 32. Torres S. 27. Tapia R. 2. Acevedo L. 3. Tapia I. 6. Rodas E. 13. Oncoy F. 9. Ruidiaz R. 5. Guarderas R. 22. Neira C. 10. de la Cruz P.
Substitutes
12. Caceda C. (G) 16. Caceres J. 9. Cuesta B. 5. Deneumostier A. 18. Figueroa N. 14. Gamero Y. 66. Orzan H. 11. Vidales J. 77. Zanelatto F.	25. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 16. Ataupillco J. 7. Barreto D. 33. Calderon A. (G) 19. Camargo I. 66. de la Cruz A. 11. Delgadillo N. 29. Franco E. 20. Vásquez C.
Coaches
Reynoso J.	Ameli G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', De Santis J. 🟨,
53', Ruidiaz R. (Penalty Awarded),
58', D'Arrigo J. ↓, Zanelatto F. ↑,
58', Erustes P. ↓, Vidales J. ↑,
58', De Santis J. ↓, Cuesta B. ↑,
71', de la Cruz P. ↓, Barreto D. ↑,
74', Guzman L. ↓, Caceres J. ↑,
82', Neira C. ↓, Franco E. ↑,
82', Guarderas R. ↓, de la Cruz A. ↑,
82', Torres S. ↓, Delgadillo N. ↑,
88', Quagliata N. ↓, Orzan H. ↑,
89', Ruidiaz R. ↓, Camargo I. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 18).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 2.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Grau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Melgar is the clear favorite.

There are questionable in Melgar: Orzan H. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Melgar won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:4. (average 1.2:0.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Melgar won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:1. (average 1.6:0.2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	FBC Melgar	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19
10	Grau	11	5	2	4	14:13	1	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FBC Melgar
Peruvian Liga 1
09.03.26	Alianza Lima - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.03.26	Cienciano - FBC Melgar	2:1 penalties ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.02.26	FBC Melgar - Los Chankas	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Cajamarca - FBC Melgar	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	FBC Melgar - Moquegua	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
06.03.26	Atlético Grau - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
01.03.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
22.02.26	Atlético Grau - Juan Pablo II College	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Sport Boys - Atlético Grau	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Atlético Grau - Sport Huancayo	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
05.10.25	Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar	0:0
18.05.25	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	1:1
23.09.24	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	0:0
21.04.24	Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar	1:2
07.07.23	FBC Melgar - Atlético Grau	3:0
04.02.23	Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar	Grau awarded
24.10.22	Atlético Grau - FBC Melgar	2:1

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