Match Info

Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 7

Date: 6 April 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Heraclio Tapia (Huánuco)

Referee: Quiroz J. C. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Peru	L1 Max, Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco		Comerciantes Unidos

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.7	5.25	Watch
	1.57	3.9	4.5
	1.65	4.05	4.8	Watch
	1.65	3.9	4.91	Watch
	1.6	4	5
	1.65	3.69	5.24	Watch
	1.65	4.05	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.67)	3.9 ↓ (4)	4.93 ↑ (4.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
57.2%

Draw
23.9%

Comerciantes Unidos
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.9%

23.8%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

23%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Comerciantes Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Universidad de Huánuco than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Comerciantes Unidos Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alianza Universidad will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alianza Universidad: 45% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 26. Iraola G. 6. Ibarguen J. 3. Ampuero A. 14. Guevara B. 10. Oliva E. 11. Vasquez Ortega E. O. 38. Sernaque J. (C) 22. Campodonico R. 17. Mena Y. 32. Leguia F.	28. Garcia L. (G) 35. Paredes G. 31. Aguilar R. 16. Tecilla N. 26. Mendez P. 8. Ibanez E. 6. Paico K. 12. Garcia L. 15. Carpio Ferro M. P. 70. Lucumi B. 9. Sen M.
Substitutes
29. Escobar J. 7. Espinoza Vega F. E. 18. Fernandez A. 12. Figueroa E. (G) 8. Lliuya M. 19. Mendieta J. 28. Perleche A. 15. Ramirez N. 50. Ramos C.	36. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 10. Escalante L. 14. Gonzales S. 25. Guzman W. 20. Parodi J. 18. Portugal B. 27. Sosa B. 21. Vega J. 23. Villete A. (G)
Coaches
Cominges P.	Cardetti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Vasquez Ortega E. O. (Pen),
26', Vasquez Ortega E. O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Garcia L. ↓, Parodi J. ↑,
46', Ibanez E. ↓, Vega J. ↑,
46', Lucumi B. ↓, Escalante L. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Vega J. ⚽, Escalante L. (A),
61', Sen M. 🟨,
67', 0 - 2, Escalante L. ⚽, Carpio Ferro M. P. (A),
67', Oliva E. ↓, Lliuya M. ↑,
67', Guevara B. ↓, Mendieta J. ↑,
71', Paredes G. 🟨,
84', Mena Y. ↓, Escobar J. ↑,
84', Leguia F. ↓, Espinoza Vega F. E. ↑,
87', Carpio Ferro M. P. ↓, Sosa B. ↑,
90+2', Sen M. ↓, Portugal B. ↑,
90+5', Vasquez Ortega E. O. 🟨,

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 and 16).

Alianza Universidad has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Comerciantes Unidos is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Alianza Universidad could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Alianza Universidad is a favorite.

There are questionable in Alianza Universidad: Escobar J. (Knee Injury) Ynamine P. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Comerciantes Unidos: Tecilla N. (Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Alianza Universidad won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:8 (average 0.5:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Alianza Universidad won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 1:5 (average 0.5:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Universidad de Huánuco
Peruvian Liga 1
30.03.25	Los Chankas - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:1 ✺
07.03.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:0 ✺
02.03.25	Universitario de Deportes - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	4:0 ✺
23.02.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - ADT Tarma	2:3 ✺
17.02.25	Ayacucho - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LTLLL
- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
27.03.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	2:2 ✺
09.03.25	Cienciano - Comerciantes Unidos	3:2 ✺
22.02.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Los Chankas	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Comerciantes Unidos	2:1 ✺
09.02.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Universitario de Deportes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.2 TLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
31.08.23	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	0:0
05.06.23	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Comerciantes Unidos	0:3
04.09.22	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Universidad de Huánuco	3:1
04.06.22	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Comerciantes Unidos	1:2

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