Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 7 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau (Valledupar)

Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	ESPN 4
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Alianza Valledupar		Cruzeiro

	1	X	2
	5.75	4.2	1.57	Watch
	5.75	3.8	1.57
	5.5	4	1.57
	6.17	4.04	1.6
	6.17	4.04	1.55
	6	3.9	1.5	Watch
	6.09	4.05	1.53	Watch
	5.6	3.9	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.88 ↑ (5)	3.99 ↑ (3.75)	1.56 ↓ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Valledupar
16%

Draw
23.6%

Cruzeiro
60.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.7%

25%

56.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

23.2%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Cruzeiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cruzeiro than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Alianza Valledupar - Cruzeiro Predictions

Users Predictions: Cruzeiro will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Graziani P. (G) 2. Navarro E. 22. Ospina Londono L. A. 5. Franco P. (C) 16. Saldana L. 6. Orozco S. 23. Meza Mercado E. W. 21. Manjarres R. 27. Batalla E. 24. Munoz J. 19. Blanco R.	98. Anderson (G) 12. William Furtado 5. Ze Ivaldo 43. Joao Marcelo 3. Marlon 21. Barreal A. 29. Romero L. 16. Lucas Silva (C) 8. Rafa Silva 10. Matheus Pereira 11. Arthur Gomes
Substitutes
15. Blanco Betancur C. 7. Castillo J. 25. Colpa Bolano R. R. 26. Gil M. 12. Mora J. (G) 1. Mosquera C. (G) 11. Renteria A. 4. Simarra A. 33. Torres M.	18. Cifuentes J. 23. Filipe Machado 30. Gabriel Veron 6. Kaiki 41. Leo Aragao (G) 27. Neris 28. Palacios H. 19. Rafael Elias 17. Ramiro 80. Robert 25. Villalba L. 22. Vitinho
Coaches
Bodhert H.	Seabra F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Blanco R. 🟨,
41', 0 - 1, Lucas Silva ⚽, Matheus Pereira (A),
44', Batalla E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Blanco R. ↓, Renteria A. ↑,
46', Navarro E. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
49', 0 - 2, Arthur Gomes ⚽,
55', William Furtado 🟨,
56', Manjarres R. ↓, Colpa Bolano R. R. ↑,
57', Orozco S. 🟨,
64', Arthur Gomes ↓, Gabriel Veron ↑,
64', Munoz J. ↓, Gil M. ↑,
65', Ze Ivaldo 🟨,
71', Barreal A. ↓, Villalba L. ↑,
71', Rafa Silva ↓, Rafael Elias ↑,
73', Batalla E. ↓, Torres M. ↑,
85', Lucas Silva ↓, Ramiro ↑,
85', Ze Ivaldo ↓, Neris ↑,
90+3', 0 - 3, Rafael Elias ⚽,

Preview

Alianza is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Cruzeiro is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Cruzeiro is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alianza won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Valledupar
Colombian Primera A
28.04.24	Atlético Bucaramanga - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Universidad Católica	1:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
20.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Jaguares de Córdoba	2:1 ✺
17.04.24	Rionegro Águilas - Alianza Valledupar	4:0 ✺
14.04.24	Alianza Valledupar - Deportivo La Equidad	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL
- Cruzeiro MG
Brazilian Serie A
28.04.24	Cruzeiro - Vitória Salvador	3:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.24	Unión La Calera - Cruzeiro	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
20.04.24	Atlético Mineiro - Cruzeiro	3:0 ✺
17.04.24	Fortaleza - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
14.04.24	Cruzeiro - Botafogo RJ	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
11.04.24	Cruzeiro - Alianza Valledupar	3:3

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