Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 14

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento (Isidro Casanova)

Referee: Balino J. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports, TyC Sports Play
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Almirante Brown		Chacarita Juniors

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.88	2.63	Watch
	2.8	2.8	2.55
	2.9	2.8	2.65	Watch
	3.18	2.76	2.75
	3.06	2.7	2.72	Watch
	2.8	2.88	2.6
	2.85	2.79	2.63	Watch
	2.9	2.8	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↓ (3.18)	2.8 ↓ (2.98)	2.65 ↑ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almirante Brown
31.8%

Draw
33.2%

Chacarita Juniors
35.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.2%

31.2%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

30.7%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almirante Brown has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Chacarita Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacarita Juniors than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Chacarita Juniors could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Almirante Brown - Chacarita Juniors Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Almirante Brown will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Chacarita will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Almirante Brown (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Almirante Brown (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez R. (G) 4. Cardozo E. 2. Levi M. 6. Acuna M. 3. Villoldo T. 8. Vazquez J. 5. Cenci B. 7. Acosta N. 10. Gauna S. 9. Villalba S. 11. Gonzalez R.	1. Avellaneda N. (G) 4. Gonzalez J. 2. Rebola A. 6. Errecalde G. 3. Quiroga A. 8. Quiroz M. 5. Bravo F. 10. Blanco R. (C) 7. Ciccolini L. 9. Salinas R. 11. Ortiz T.
Substitutes
16. Almada T. 18. Belloso M. 12. Galvan B. (G) 20. Garcia D. 17. Garcia F. 13. Iribarren N. 15. Velazquez J. 19. Vera S. 14. Zacaria J.	14. Acosta S. 13. Andueza F. 19. Apa S. 18. Araujo A. 20. Costa R. 16. Figueroa V. 17. Melendez M. 15. Napolitano A. 12. Strumia J. (G)
Coaches
Szeszurak G.	Azconzabal J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Acuna M. ⚽,
34', Bravo F. 🟨,
36', Ciccolini L. 🟨,
38', Cardozo E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
54', 1 - 1, Bravo F. ⚽,
57', Gonzalez R. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
61', Gonzalez J. 🟨,
63', Blanco R. ↓, Melendez M. ↑,
64', Quiroz M. ↓, Figueroa V. ↑,
64', Ciccolini L. ↓, Napolitano A. ↑,
68', Salinas R. 🟨,
68', Napolitano A. 🟨,
72', Gauna S. ↓, Belloso M. ↑,
72', Villalba S. ↓, Vera S. ↑,
78', Salinas R. ↓, Apa S. ↑,
80', Vazquez J. ↓, Garcia D. ↑,
80', Cardozo E. ↓, Iribarren N. ↑,
86', 1 - 2, Errecalde G. ⚽,
90', Ortiz T. ↓, Andueza F. ↑,
90', Acuna M. 🟨,
90+3', Quiroga A. 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 3, Gonzalez J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Almirante Brown has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chacarita is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Almirante Brown may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Almirante Brown won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:7. (average 2.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Almirante Brown won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almirante Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
03.05.25	San Telmo - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
27.04.25	Almirante Brown - Agropecuario Argentino	0:0 ✺
19.04.25	Gimnasia Jujuy - Almirante Brown	1:0 ✺
13.04.25	Almirante Brown - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Central Norte - Almirante Brown	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTLTL
- Chacarita Juniors
Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.05.25	Chacarita Juniors - Chaco For Ever	0:3 ✺
27.04.25	Mitre - Chacarita Juniors	0:0 ✺
20.04.25	Chacarita Juniors - Colón	3:2 ✺
13.04.25	Temperley - Chacarita Juniors	0:3 ✺
05.04.25	Chacarita Juniors - Defensores Unidos	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.02.22	Almirante Brown - Chacarita Juniors	4:2
15.08.21	Almirante Brown - Chacarita Juniors	2:1
05.04.21	Chacarita Juniors - Almirante Brown	2:1
Argentinian Primera B
12.11.14	Chacarita Juniors - Almirante Brown	2:2

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