Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 38

Date: 16 October 2023, Monday


	Alvarado		Defensores Unidos

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.3	3.6	Watch
	2	3.2	3.5
	2.05	3.25	3.5	Watch
	2.08	3.19	3.99
	2.05	3.1	3.6
	2.02	3.32	3.76
	2.03	3.25	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.05 ↓ (2.41)	3.23 ↑ (3.05)	3.65 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
45.6%

Draw
28.9%

Defensores Unidos
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

29.7%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.4%

31%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alvarado's performance.

Defensores Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Defensores Unidos might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alvarado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Defensores Unidos than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Defensores Unidos could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	72.7%	9.1%

Alvarado - Defensores Unidos Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Alvarado will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Defensores Unidos will win (votes: 1 - 9.1%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lungarzo J. (G) 4. Bettini M. 2. Robledo A. 6. Berra T. 3. Ihitz N. 8. Jaurena S. 5. Bellocq F. 10. Makarte R. 11. Boasso F. 7. Ramirez S. 9. Albertengo M.	1. Henricot F. (G) 4. Alarcon M. N. 2. Laumann F. 6. Zadel D. 3. Mbombaj G. 8. Garcia B. 5. Nizzo M. 10. Disanto L. 11. Nunez D. 7. Palazuelos B. 9. Osuna L.
Substitutes
19. Bolanos E. 18. Fernandez J. L. 15. Lacunza L. 16. Lamardo G. 12. Lobelos J. (G) 14. Olivera L. 20. Rebecchi L. 17. Vadala G. 13. Vitale J.	12. Aquino M. (G) 19. Bellido T. 15. Desposito P. 18. Lonardi F. 13. Morales A. 16. Ortigoza M. 20. Scarpa G. 17. Suarez J. 14. Tribulo S.
Coaches
Martinez J. M.	Davio S.

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 15 and 12).

Alvarado is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Defensores Unidos is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Alvarado will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Alvarado won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 0-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
06.10.23	Guillermo Brown - Alvarado	2:0 ✺
30.09.23	Alvarado - Agropecuario Argentino	1:2 ✺
24.09.23	Club Almagro - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
17.09.23	Alvarado - San Telmo	1:0 ✺
09.09.23	Temperley - Alvarado	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLTWL
- Defensores Unidos
Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.10.23	Defensores Unidos - Deportivo Flandria	0:0 ✺
30.09.23	San Martín de San Juan - Defensores Unidos	3:2 ✺
16.09.23	Defensores Unidos - Guillermo Brown	2:1 ✺
10.09.23	Agropecuario Argentino - Defensores Unidos	2:0 ✺
02.09.23	Defensores Unidos - Club Almagro	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 TLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.06.23	Defensores Unidos - Alvarado	0:0

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