Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 30

Date: 8 September 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Alvarado		Deportivo Maipú

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.5	3.5	Watch
	2.65	2.75	2.8
	2.58	2.62	3.15	Watch
	2.69	2.67	3.48
	2.50	2.50	3.70	Watch
	2.53	2.66	3.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.34)	2.62 ↓ (2.73)	3.31 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
36.2%

Draw
35.6%

Deportivo Maipú
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

33.7%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.3%

32.9%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Deportivo Maipú has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Maipú than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	66.7%	33.3%

Alvarado - Deportivo Maipú Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Deportivo Maipú will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Maipú (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 4. Ardiles F. 2. Blasi B. (C) 6. Irazoque A. 3. Aleo A. 7. Ascacibar J. 5. Mansilla M. 8. Bolivar A. 11. Gobetto J. 10. Miori M. 9. Susvielles J.	1. Pietrobono I. (G) 4. Paredes L. 2. Arnijas L. 6. Aguero Gimenez A. R. 3. de la Reta J. 8. Bonfigli M. 5. Villarreal M. 10. Eggel M. (C) 11. Sambueza R. 7. Saccone F. 9. Bonacci P.
Substitutes
19. Amilivia T. 20. Bolzicco T. 13. Fernandez T. 14. Gorgerino C. 12. Henricot F. (G) 16. Ortale M. 18. Perez M. 17. Russo F. 15. Werro V.	16. Campagnaro M. 15. Cruz A. 13. Faggioli L. 12. Galardi N. (G) 14. Ozuna E. 20. Paulini S. 18. Sandoval I. 17. Silva T. 19. Yavante Gaitan D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Blasi B. 🟨,
9', Sambueza R. ↓, Ozuna E. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ascacibar J. ↓, Russo F. ↑,
51', Russo F. 🟨,
54', Ozuna E. 🟨,
57', Bolivar A. 🟨,
61', Saccone F. ↓, Sandoval I. ↑,
62', Aleo A. ↓, Gorgerino C. ↑,
63', Susvielles J. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
67', Bolivar A. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
76', Ozuna E. ↓, Silva T. ↑,
76', Bonfigli M. ↓, Faggioli L. ↑,
79', Mansilla M. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,
88', Gobetto J. 🟨,
90', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alvarado won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Alvarado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Alvarado won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alvarado won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:1. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.08.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Alvarado	3:0 ✺
28.08.25	Quilmes - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
23.08.25	Alvarado - Tristán Suárez	0:0 ✺
17.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
10.08.25	Alvarado - Güemes	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 LTTTT
- Deportivo Maipú
Argentinian Primera Nacional
31.08.25	Deportivo Maipú - Deportivo Madryn	2:1 ✺
24.08.25	Deportivo Maipú - Los Andes	1:1 ✺
20.08.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Maipú	2:1 ✺
15.08.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Deportivo Maipú	1:0 ✺
09.08.25	Deportivo Maipú - Tristán Suárez	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.05.25	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	3:0
01.09.24	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	1:1
13.04.24	Alvarado - Deportivo Maipú	0:1
11.09.22	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	0:1
04.09.21	Alvarado - Deportivo Maipú	1:0
25.04.21	Deportivo Maipú - Alvarado	1:0

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