Match Info

Torneo Federal - Round 16

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Alvarado		Germinal

	1	X	2
	1.32	4.10	9.00
	1.31	4.05	9.8
	1.43	4	9.65
	1.38	3.87	11.73	Watch
	1.41	3.2	9.45
	1.4	4.14	8.79
	1.54	3.35	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.54)	3.82 ↑ (3.35)	9.26 ↑ (6.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
65.9%

Draw
24.2%

Germinal
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.8%

27%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

26.3%

13.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alvarado's performance.

Germinal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alvarado that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Germinal than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Alvarado - Germinal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bilbao E. (C)
11. Castellano A.
2. Centurion F.
9. Cervera G.
7. Chiozza L.
5. Federico T.
4. Fernandez T.
6. Gorgerino C.
10. Gutierrez S.
8. Makarte R.
3. Perez M.
Substitutes
13. Berra T.
15. Hofstetter P. J.
20. Melean A.
18. Miori M.
14. Nunez L.
17. Pinoni F.
19. Sosa G.
16. Speck N.
12. Zapata A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Cervera G. ⚽,
8', 2 - 0, Gutierrez S. ⚽,
11', 3 - 0, Centurion F. ⚽,
34', 4 - 0, Makarte R. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 5 - 0, ⚽,
64', 🟨,
77', (Penalty Awarded),
84', 🟨,
84', 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Winners stage: ) and 5 in the zone Torneo Federal (Losers stage: )).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Alvarado is the clear favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Alvarado won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Torneo Federal
28.06.26	Villa Mitre - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
20.06.26	Alvarado - Círculo Deportivo	1:0 ✺
14.06.26	Kimberley de Mar del Plata - Alvarado	2:2 ✺
07.06.26	Alvarado - Sol de Mayo	2:0 ✺
31.05.26	Guillermo Brown - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWTWT
- CA Germinal
Argentinian Torneo Federal
28.06.26	Germinal - Santamarina de Tandil	1:0 ✺
14.06.26	Villa Mitre - Germinal	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Germinal - Círculo Deportivo	0:0 ✺
30.05.26	Kimberley de Mar del Plata - Germinal	1:0 ✺
24.05.26	Germinal - Sol de Mayo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
03.05.26	Germinal - Alvarado	1:0

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