Match Info

Torneo Federal - Winners stage - Round 4

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio El Fortin (Bahía Blanca)


	Villa Mitre		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	2.10	2.65	3.60
	2.12	2.70	3.65	Watch
	2.18	2.57	4.10
	2.16	2.75	3.84	Watch
	2.15	2.40	4.05
	2.16	2.54	4.08
	2.15	2.8	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↑ (2.12)	2.63 ↓ (2.7)	3.85 ↑ (3.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Villa Mitre
42.1%

Draw
34.4%

Alvarado
23.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

33.2%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43%

32.7%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Villa Mitre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa Mitre than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Villa Mitre - Alvarado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mazza J. P. (G) 2. Almada J. 11. Ayala V. 6. Bacigalupe S. 8. Battigelli A. 5. Cavagnero N. 10. Cordoba G. G. 4. Escobar M. 9. Ibarra T. 7. Monti L. 3. Pinto M.	1. Bilbao E. (C) 11. Castellano A. 2. Centurion F. 4. Chiozza L. 5. Federico T. 6. Fernandez T. 3. Gorgerino C. 10. Gutierrez S. 7. Makarte R. 8. Mansilla M. 9. Sosa G.
Substitutes
15. Aguirre M. 12. Alcaraz M. (G) 16. Avit D. 20. Gomez S. 13. Olguin U. 14. Palacio C. 17. Tunessi M. 19. Valencia C. 18. Valeri V.	13. Berra T. 19. Cervera G. 15. Hofstetter P. J. 20. Melean A. 16. Miori M. 14. Nunez L. 18. Pinoni F. 17. Speck N. 12. Zapata A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', 🟨,
11', 🟨,
30', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', 🟨,
56', 🟨,
66', 🟨,

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Federal (Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Villa Mitre won 1.

Villa Mitre has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Alvarado is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Alvarado may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Villa Mitre will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Villa Mitre won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:10. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Villa Mitre won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club Villa Mitre
Argentinian Torneo Federal
12.08.26	Olimpo Bahia Blanca - Villa Mitre	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Villa Mitre - Cipolletti	1:1 ✺
02.08.26	Atenas Río Cuarto - Villa Mitre	0:1 ✺
26.07.26	Sol de Mayo - Villa Mitre	3:3 ✺
12.07.26	Villa Mitre - Guillermo Brown	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 LTWTW
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Torneo Federal
12.08.26	Alvarado - Huracán Las Heras	1:0 ✺
07.08.26	Juventud Antoniana - Alvarado	0:2 ✺
11.07.26	Santamarina de Tandil - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
05.07.26	Alvarado - Germinal	5:0 ✺
28.06.26	Villa Mitre - Alvarado	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Torneo Federal
28.06.26	Villa Mitre - Alvarado	1:0
26.04.26	Alvarado - Villa Mitre	1:1
03.03.19	Alvarado - Villa Mitre	1:1
07.11.18	Villa Mitre - Alvarado	1:1
18.09.18	Alvarado - Villa Mitre	2:2
11.02.18	Alvarado - Villa Mitre	1:0
15.11.17	Villa Mitre - Alvarado	2:1

Upcoming Matches