Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 12

Date: 16 April 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio José María Minella (Mar del Plata)

Referee: Llobet F. (Arg)


	Alvarado		Nueva Chicago

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.8	2.88
	2.85	2.75	2.6
	3	2.8	2.6
	3.14	2.76	2.75
	2.88	2.75	2.55
	2.96	2.96	2.62	Watch
	2.85	2.8	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.64)	2.8 ↓ (2.91)	2.66 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alvarado
31.7%

Draw
33.3%

Nueva Chicago
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

31.2%

34.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

32.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Nueva Chicago has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nueva Chicago than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	62.5%	0%

Alvarado - Nueva Chicago Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alvarado will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 62.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Let's watch a game between leader and outsider (ranked 17 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Alvarado could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Alvarado won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Alvarado won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
08.04.23	All Boys - Alvarado	2:1 ✺
05.04.23	Alvarado - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	2:1 ✺
01.04.23	Defensores de Belgrano - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
25.03.23	Alvarado - Almirante Brown	0:1 ✺
20.03.23	Deportivo Morón - Alvarado	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWTLT
- CA Nueva Chicago
Argentinian Primera Nacional
10.04.23	Nueva Chicago - Deportivo Flandria	1:0 ✺
05.04.23	San Martín de San Juan - Nueva Chicago	0:0 ✺
30.03.23	Nueva Chicago - Defensores Unidos	0:0 ✺
26.03.23	Guillermo Brown - Nueva Chicago	0:2 ✺
18.03.23	Nueva Chicago - Agropecuario Argentino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
04.09.22	Alvarado - Nueva Chicago	0:0
06.11.21	Alvarado - Nueva Chicago	4:0
10.07.21	Nueva Chicago - Alvarado	1:1
05.12.20	Nueva Chicago - Alvarado	2:5
19.10.19	Nueva Chicago - Alvarado	0:1

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