Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 15

Date: 22 December 2025, Monday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Alverca		Porto

	1	X	2
	9	5	1.3	Watch
	9.3	4.95	1.32	Watch
	9.03	4.95	1.34
	8.74	4.96	1.36	Watch
	9	4.75	1.33
	9.1	5.16	1.37	Watch
	9.5	4.75	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.1 ↓ (9.66)	4.93 ↑ (4.75)	1.34 (1.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
10.4%

Draw
19.1%

Porto
70.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

9.8%

19.9%

70.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

9.1%

18.6%

75.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Porto than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.1%	11.1%	77.8%

Alverca - Porto Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 11.1%). Porto will win (votes: 21 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 62.1% – 93.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Porto (1.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Porto (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Porto (1.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Porto (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Porto (votes: 11 - 91.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gomes A. (G) 3. Martinez J. 4. Naves (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 8. Amorim 21. Abdulai S. 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 9. Marezi 20. Figueiredo	99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 13. Rosario P. 4. Kiwior J. 52. Fernandes M. 86. Mora R. 22. Varela A. 8. Froholdt V. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 17. Sainz B.
Substitutes
14. Baseya S. 77. Felipe Lima 5. Gomez S. 6. Gui D. 12. James I. 37. Kauan 19. Leite T. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 11. Nuozzi C.	47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 6. Eustaquio S. 27. Gul D. 75. Karamoh Y. 74. Moura F. 21. Prpic D. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes
Coaches
Custodio	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
29', 0 - 1, Sainz B. ⚽, Mora R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Costa A. ↓, Moura F. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Varela A. ⚽,
59', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
59', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
63', Sainz B. 🟨,
67', Marezi ↓, Leite T. ↑,
69', 0 - 3, Sainz B. ⚽, Moura F. (A),
73', Lincoln ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
75', Varela A. ↓, Eustaquio S. ↑,
80', Sainz B. ↓, Gul D. ↑,
84', Figueiredo ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
84', Amorim ↓, Gui D. ↑,
85', Abdulai S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Alverca has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Porto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Porto has had a series of home games.

In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury) Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Leo Chu (Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury) Paulo A. (Inactive) Sandro Lima (Red Card)

There will not play in Porto: Bednarek J. (Yellow Cards) Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Zaidu (International duty) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Alverca: Gomez S. (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
14.12.25	Arouca - Alverca	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
31.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWWTL
- FC Porto
Taça de Portugal
18.12.25	Porto - Famalicão	4:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
15.12.25	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Porto - Malmö	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Tondela - Porto	0:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWWWL

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