Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 12

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior (Rio Maior)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Casa Pia		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.95	2.95	Watch
	2.52	2.92	2.98	Watch
	2.61	3.05	3.13
	2.50	3.04	3.03	Watch
				Watch
	2.62	3.08	3.08	Watch
	2.45	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↑ (2.5)	3.01 ↓ (3.04)	3.05 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
37.4%

Draw
31.5%

Alverca
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

31.1%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Casa Pia - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Alverca will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Casa Pia: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Casa Pia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sequeira P. (G) 27. Kaique Rocha 6. Fonte J. (C) 18. Geraldes A. 72. Larrazabal G. 42. Perez S. 8. Brito R. 5. Conte A. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 7. Nsona K.	13. Gomes A. (G) 4. Naves 5. Gomez S. (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 91. Sandro Lima 11. Nuozzi C.
Substitutes
33. Batista R. (G) 12. Benaissa-Yahia F. 4. Goulart J. 14. Miguel Sousa 21. Morais T. 74. Nhaga R. 20. Oukili Y. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 17. Severina X.	20. Figueiredo 6. Gui D. 12. James I. 37. Kauan 19. Leite T. 9. Marezi 3. Martinez J. 88. Martins D. 31. Mateus Oliveira (G)
Coaches
Santana A.	Custodio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
43', Cassiano 🟨,
45+3', Sequeira P. 🟥,
45+3', Fonte J. 🟨,
45+7', Cassiano ↓, Batista R. ↑,
45+8', Geraldes A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
50', Meupiyou B. 🟨,
62', Brito R. ↓, Nhaga R. ↑,
62', Conte A. ↓, Benaissa-Yahia F. ↑,
62', Nsona K. ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
62', Meupiyou B. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
62', Nuozzi C. ↓, Marezi ↑,
72', Larrazabal G. 🟨,
76', 0 - 1, Lincoln ⚽, Sandro Lima (A),
80', Kaique Rocha ↓, Morais T. ↑,
81', Abdulai S. ↓, Figueiredo ↑,
82', Sandro Lima ↓, Gui D. ↑,
90+1', Gui D. 🟨,
90+4', Amorim 🟨,
90+6', Marezi 🟨,
90+7', Lincoln ↓, James I. ↑,
90+9', 0 - 2, Marezi ⚽, Touaizi N. (A),

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 15 and 14).

Casa Pia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Alverca is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Casa Pia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Kiki (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Sousa D. (Yellow Cards) Svensson M. (Inactive) Tchamba D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S. (Inactive) James I. (Inactive) Leo Chu (Inactive) Martinez J. (Inactive) Paulo A. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury) Figueiredo (Injury) Mendes T. (Inactive)

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Alpendorada - Casa Pia	0:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
26.10.25	Braga - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
03.10.25	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.7 WTLLT
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
31.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	2:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
28.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	5:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
24.10.25	Alverca - Gil Vicente	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
18.10.25	Leiria - Alverca	3:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLL

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