Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 13

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Referee: Branco Godinho L. M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+, Sport Live
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Kuwait	KTV Sport
Lithuania	Sport 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 4
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter


	Tondela		Porto

	1	X	2
	12	6	1.19	Watch
	12.5	6.4	1.19	Watch
	14.13	6.59	1.23
	12.94	6.25	1.23	Watch
	12	5.75	1.22	Watch
	11.9	6.42	1.26	Watch
	13	5.75	1.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	12.64 ↑ (9.85)	6.17 ↑ (5.41)	1.22 ↓ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
7.5%

Draw
15.3%

Porto
77.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

9.6%

17.5%

72.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

9.3%

16.9%

75.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.7%	5.9%	79.4%

Tondela - Porto Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Porto (1.29) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Porto will win (27 of 34 users predict this - 79.41%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.82% – 93%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 12 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 48. Manso T. 4. Marques C. 20. Medina B. 60. Maviram E. 32. Rodriguez J. 15. Sithole S. 79. Felix H. 7. Pedro Maranhao (C) 29. Siebatcheu J. 70. Moudjatovic M.	99. Costa D. (G) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 86. Mora R. 7. William Gomes 9. Samu 11. Pepê
Substitutes
5. Afonso J. 30. Canizares L. (G) 17. Cavaleiro I. 6. Ceitil A. 10. Hodge J. 11. Rodriguez Y. 16. Rony Lopes 8. Tavares H. 21. Vita R.	47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 6. Eustaquio S. 52. Fernandes M. 27. Gul D. 21. Prpic D. 13. Rosario P. 17. Sainz B. 10. Veiga G.
Coaches
Bacci C.	Farioli F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Sithole S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', 0 - 1, Samu ⚽,
49', 0 - 2, William Gomes ⚽,
58', Moudjatovic M. ↓, Ceitil A. ↑,
59', Medina B. ↓, Cavaleiro I. ↑,
59', Pedro Maranhao ↓, Afonso J. ↑,
60', Manso T. 🟨,
63', William Gomes ↓, Sainz B. ↑,
63', Mora R. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
69', Sithole S. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
78', Pepê ↓, Alarcon A. ↑,
79', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
82', Felix H. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
82', Costa A. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
90+1', Moura F. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 0.

Tondela is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Porto is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Porto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Porto has had a series of home games.

In this match, Porto is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Tondela: Souza G. (Inactive)

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Tondela: Bebeto (Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 8:38. (average 0.5:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:13. (average 0.3:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Gil Vicente - Tondela	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Tondela - Caldas	0:1 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	AVS - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 WLLTL
- FC Porto
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
30.11.25	Porto - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Porto - Nice	3:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.11.25	Porto - Sintrense	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Famalicão - Porto	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Super Cup
30.07.22	Porto - Tondela	3:0
Taça de Portugal
22.05.22	Porto - Tondela	3:1
Liga Portugal
13.03.22	Porto - Tondela	4:0
23.10.21	Tondela - Porto	1:3
10.04.21	Tondela - Porto	0:2
Taça de Portugal
13.12.20	Porto - Tondela	2:1
Liga Portugal
05.12.20	Porto - Tondela	4:3

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