Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 13

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday

Location: FC Alverca Sports Complex (Alverca do Ribatejo)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Portugal	Sport TV2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine


	Alverca		Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.22	2.98	3.55	Watch
	2.22	3.12	3.91
	2.18	3.07	3.73	Watch
	2.15	3	3.5
	2.25	3.2	3.66	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.33)	3.07 ↓ (3.22)	3.66 ↑ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alverca
43.3%

Draw
30.9%

Nacional
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

29.4%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

28.4%

31.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alverca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	37.5%	25%

Alverca - Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Alverca will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Alverca (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Alverca (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Gomes A. (G) 3. Martinez J. 4. Naves (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 91. Sandro Lima 11. Nuozzi C.	1. Kaique Pereira (G) 16. Nunez A. 38. Ze Vitor 34. Leo Santos 24. Vallier L. 15. Labidi C. 6. Matheus Dias 28. Liziero 11. Paulinho Boia 9. Ramirez J. (C) 17. Nourani M.
Substitutes
14. Baseya S. 77. Felipe Lima 20. Figueiredo 6. Gui D. 12. James I. 37. Kauan 19. Leite T. 9. Marezi 31. Mateus Oliveira (G)	8. Baeza M. 88. Deivison 33. Goncalves C. 19. Joao L. 37. Lucas Franca (G) 26. Silva J. 18. Sousa A. 30. Watts 7. Witi
Coaches
Custodio	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
6', Lincoln (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
65', Labidi C. ↓, Baeza M. ↑,
65', Nourani M. ↓, Witi ↑,
66', Sandro Lima ↓, Marezi ↑,
66', Nuozzi C. ↓, Figueiredo ↑,
71', Touaizi N. 🟨,
85', Lincoln ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
85', Abdulai S. ↓, Gui D. ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Marezi ⚽, Gui D. (A),
90', Nunez A. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
90', Vallier L. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
90', Matheus Dias ↓, Deivison ↑,
90+2', Amorim ↓, Baseya S. ↑,
90+3', Deivison 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 13).

Neither of the teams is performing well right now.

Alverca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alverca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Alverca: Diarra S. (Inactive) Leo Chu (Inactive) Paulo A. (Inactive)

There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I. (Inactive) Pablo Ruan (Inactive) Ulisses (Inactive)

There are questionable in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury) Mendes T. (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Nacional - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 30.03%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
31.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	2:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
28.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	5:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
24.10.25	Alverca - Gil Vicente	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WTLLL
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
29.11.25	Nacional - Benfica	1:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Braga - Nacional	4:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Nacional - Famalicão	0:1 ✺
26.10.25	Estoril Praia - Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLTLT

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