Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 14

Date: 15 December 2025, Monday

Location: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

Referee: Fonseca M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hungary	Sport 2
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV1
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 1
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Usa	Fanatiz


	Porto		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	1.13	7	15	Watch
	1.14	7.4	16.5
	1.15	7.62	17.5
	1.18	7.3	14.93	Watch
	1.15	7	15	Watch
	1.18	7.88	16.9	Watch
	1.15	7	18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.15 ↓ (1.18)	7.31 ↑ (7.04)	16.26 ↑ (14.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Porto
81.4%

Draw
12.8%

Estrela da Amadora
5.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

80.2%

13.4%

6.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Estrela da Amadora has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.3%	11.8%	2.9%

Porto - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Porto will win (votes: 29 - 85.3%). Estrela will win (votes: 1 - 2.9%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 73.4% – 97.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.25, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Porto (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - Porto (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Porto (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2.75 - Porto (2.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Porto (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +3 - Estrela (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (15 of 18 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 20 - 83.3%). Estrela (votes: 1 - 4.2%). Tie (votes: 3 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Costa D. (C) 20. Costa A. 5. Bednarek J. 4. Kiwior J. 74. Moura F. 8. Froholdt V. 22. Varela A. 86. Mora R. 11. Pepê 9. Samu 17. Sainz B.	40. Ribeiro R. (G) 30. Luan Patrick 83. Otavio 14. Bernardo Schappo 10. Stoica I. 6. Ngom O. 19. Moreira P. 55. Cabral S. 99. Marcus A. 98. Kikas (C) 63. Sola A.
Substitutes
47. Alarcon A. 14. Claudio Ramos (G) 6. Eustaquio S. 52. Fernandes M. 27. Gul D. 21. Prpic D. 13. Rosario P. 10. Veiga G. 7. William Gomes	41. Caica 79. Chernev A. 17. Encada J. 89. Gastao J. 22. Grilo D. (G) 11. Jovane 18. Meireles J. 8. Robinho 9. Rodrigo Pinho
Coaches
Farioli F.	Nuno J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Samu (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', Bernardo Schappo 🟨,
53', Bednarek J. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Marcus A. ⚽, Cabral S. (A),
61', Kikas ↓, Jovane ↑,
61', Stoica I. ↓, Encada J. ↑,
63', 2 - 1, Moura F. ⚽,
65', Varela A. ↓, Rosario P. ↑,
65', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
65', Ribeiro R. 🟨,
65', Marcus A. 🟨,
73', 3 - 1, Samu ⚽,
75', Costa A. ↓, Fernandes M. ↑,
76', Mora R. ↓, Veiga G. ↑,
76', Moreira P. ↓, Gastao J. ↑,
76', Marcus A. ↓, Rodrigo Pinho ↑,
82', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
84', Cabral S. ↓, Meireles J. ↑,
86', Jovane 🟨,
90+1', Otavio 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 12).

Porto is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Estrela has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Estrela may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Porto has had a series of home games.

In this match, Porto is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Porto: Perez N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) de Jong L. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Estrela: Montoia G. (Inactive) Ni (Injury)

There are questionable in Porto: Veiga G. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Porto won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Porto won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 2:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Porto
UEFA Europa League
11.12.25	Porto - Malmö	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Tondela - Porto	0:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
04.12.25	Porto - Vitoria Guimarães	1:3 ✺
Liga Portugal
30.11.25	Porto - Estoril Praia	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
27.11.25	Porto - Nice	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1 ✺
30.11.25	Sporting Lisbon - Estrela da Amadora	4:0 ✺
Club Friendly
19.11.25	Valladolid - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.11.25	Estrela da Amadora - Nacional	1:1 ✺
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.1 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
26.04.25	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	2:0
16.12.24	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
17.02.24	Porto - Estrela da Amadora	2:0
15.09.23	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	0:1

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