Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 14

Date: 14 December 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Silva D. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Portugal	Sport TV1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Sport


	Arouca		Alverca

	1	X	2
	2.95	3.2	2.35	Watch
	2.92	3.05	2.48	Watch
	3.14	3.16	2.58
	3.07	3.18	2.43	Watch
	3	3	2.45	Watch
	3.07	3.2	2.55	Watch
	3	3.1	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.97)	3.13 ↓ (3.23)	2.47 ↑ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
31.4%

Draw
30.3%

Alverca
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

29.3%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

28.6%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Alverca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alverca than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.3%	5.9%	58.8%

Arouca - Alverca Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 6 - 35.3%). Alverca will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Alverca: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 40%). Alverca (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Alverca (1.74) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Arouca (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Alverca (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
58. Mantl N. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 66. Fayed O. 5. Popovic B. 44. Dante A. 89. Pedro Santos 22. van Ee E. 19. Trezza A. 11. Puche 7. Djouahra N. 23. Nandin D.	13. Gomes A. (G) 3. Martinez J. 4. Naves (C) 33. Meupiyou B. 2. Touaizi N. 21. Abdulai S. 8. Amorim 55. Chissumba 18. Lincoln 91. Sandro Lima 20. Figueiredo
Substitutes
17. Barbero I. 3. Fontan J. 10. Gozalbez P. 14. Lee H. 24. Mansilla B. 4. Rocha M. 8. Simao D. 16. Sola A. 1. Valido J. (G)	14. Baseya S. 77. Felipe Lima 6. Gui D. 12. James I. 37. Kauan 19. Leite T. 9. Marezi 31. Mateus Oliveira (G) 11. Nuozzi C.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Custodio

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Sandro Lima 🟥,
34', Touaizi N. 🟨,
41', Naves 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Figueiredo ↓, Marezi ↑,
55', Puche ↓, Lee H. ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Lee H. ⚽, Tiago Esgaio (A),
69', Tiago Esgaio 🟨,
69', Nandin D. ↓, Barbero I. ↑,
69', Popovic B. ↓, Fontan J. ↑,
73', Lincoln 🟨,
77', Lincoln ↓, Nuozzi C. ↑,
77', Amorim ↓, Gui D. ↑,
85', van Ee E. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
85', Djouahra N. ↓, Simao D. ↑,
85', Meupiyou B. ↓, James I. ↑,
89', Abdulai S. ↓, Felipe Lima ↑,
90+5', Chissumba 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 9).

Arouca has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alverca's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Alverca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Arouca: Alex Pinto (Red Card) Flores M. (Knee Injury) Fukui T. (Red Card)

There will not play in Alverca: Chiquinho (Injury) Diarra S. (Muscle Injury) Leo Chu (Injury) Mendes T. (Muscle Injury) Paulo A. (Inactive)

We predict that Alverca will win today's game, with odds of 2.65.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Estrela da Amadora - Arouca	3:1 ✺
01.12.25	Arouca - Braga	0:4 ✺
Taça de Portugal
23.11.25	Fafe - Arouca	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3 ✺
02.11.25	Arouca - Moreirense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- FC Alverca
Liga Portugal
07.12.25	Alverca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
29.11.25	Casa Pia - Alverca	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Alverca - Rio Ave	1:1 ✺
31.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	2:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
28.10.25	Sporting Lisbon - Alverca	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WWTLL

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