Match Info

BRAZIL: SERIE A - ROUND 1

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio Raimundo Sampaio (Belo Horizonte)

Referee: Machado B. (Bra)


	América Mineiro		Fluminense

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.75	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.75
	2.7	3.3	2.63
	2.66	3.38	2.81
	2.56	3.34	2.72	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.62 ↓ (2.73)	3.28 ↑ (3.08)	2.74 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

América Mineiro
36.3%

Draw
29%

Fluminense
34.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

29.6%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

30.8%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

América Mineiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for América Mineiro than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	54.5%	27.3%

América Mineiro - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. América MG will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). Fluminense will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 54.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

América MG has the most likely position - 14 (6.8%), project points - 48, currently - 0, a chance of relegated (23%), a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Fluminense has the most likely position - 5 (8.62%), project points - 60, currently - 0, a very small chance of relegated (5%), a very small chance of win league (5%).

This event has quality 53, small importance 25, match rating 39. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches América MG won 2.

Recent matches América MG is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Fluminense is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Fluminense: Matheus Ferraz (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches América MG won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 3-5.

Including matches at home between the teams América MG won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- América Mineiro
Copa do Brasil
12.04.23	Nova Iguaçu - América Mineiro	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
09.04.23	Atlético Mineiro - América Mineiro	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
05.04.23	América Mineiro - Peñarol de Montevideo	4:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Mineiro
01.04.23	América Mineiro - Atlético Mineiro	2:3 ✺
19.03.23	América Mineiro - Cruzeiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLW
- Fluminense RJ
Copa do Brasil
12.04.23	Fluminense - Paysandu	3:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
09.04.23	Fluminense - Flamengo	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.04.23	Sporting Cristal - Fluminense	1:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.04.23	Flamengo - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
18.03.23	Fluminense - Volta Redonda	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
09.10.22	Fluminense - América Mineiro	0:2
15.06.22	América Mineiro - Fluminense	0:0
21.11.21	Fluminense - América Mineiro	2:0
08.08.21	América Mineiro - Fluminense	1:0
02.12.18	Fluminense - América Mineiro	1:0
19.08.18	América Mineiro - Fluminense	0:0
14.08.16	Fluminense - América Mineiro	1:0

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