Match Info

Cymru Premier - Round 12

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Ammanford Recreation Ground (Ammanford)

Referee: Wright R. (Wal)

Where to Watch on TV:


Wales	Cymru Football TV


	Ammanford		Holywell Town

	1	X	2
	2.87	3.40	2.10
	3.05	3.30	2.04
	3.20	3.74	2.06
	2.91	3.71	2.22	Watch
	3.15	3.70	2.03
	3.12	3.74	2.08
	3.00	3.45	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.6)	3.58 ↑ (3.35)	2.09 ↓ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ammanford
30.2%

Draw
25.7%

Holywell Town
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.8%

27%

38.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

26%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ammanford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Holywell Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Holywell Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ammanford than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ammanford, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Holywell Town than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Holywell Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ammanford - Holywell Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Williams O. (G) 5. Bell C. 6. Delaney M. 24. Evans J. 14. Fisher M. 4. Griffiths E. 8. Orme A. 22. Rowe H. 3. Sauane B. 10. Thomas C. 2. Woodhouse S.	1. Swindell A. (G) 7. Bibby T. 9. Davies O. 34. Edwards R. 18. Hughes C. 28. Morris H. 14. Murtas F. 19. Sconce J. 6. Sullivan D. 12. Tierney J. 27. Yonsian F.
Substitutes
30. Case J. M. 17. Davies C. L. 26. Davies L. 13. Hopkins J. 7. John A. 20. Lloyd H. 25. Shirt C.	20. Baker S. 2. Bedford C. 31. Collins E. (G) 3. Davies M. 8. Dogan T. 21. Williams L. 10. Winslade M.
Coaches
Thomas W.	Haseldin J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Yonsian F. ⚽,
20', Murtas F. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Evans J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 2 - 1, Fisher M. ⚽,
53', Evans J. 🟨,
69', Thomas C. ↓, Davies C. L. ↑,
69', Fisher M. ↓, Shirt C. ↑,
76', Delaney M. 🟨,
82', Evans J. ↓, John A. ↑,
90+1', 🟨,
90+7', Davies C. L. 🟨,
90+7', Bibby T. 🟨,
90+8', Murtas F. ↓, Williams L. ↑,
90+8', Bibby T. ↓, Dogan T. ↑,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 15th in the Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: ) and 16th in the Cymru Premier (Relegation Group: )).

Ammanford is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Holywell Town has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Ammanford	12	1	3	8	9:32	-23	6
16	Holywell	12	0	2	10	13:38	-25	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ammanford AFC
Welsh Cymru Premier
26.09.26	Flint Town United - Ammanford	3:0 ✺
18.09.26	Ammanford - Pen-y-Bont	1:5 ✺
15.09.26	Barry Town United - Ammanford	2:2 ✺
11.09.26	Ammanford - Caernarfon Town	0:5 ✺
04.09.26	Llandudno - Ammanford	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LLTLL
- Holywell Town
Welsh Cymru Premier
26.09.26	Holywell Town - Briton Ferry Llansawel	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	Haverfordwest County - Holywell Town	1:0 ✺
15.09.26	Holywell Town - Colwyn Bay	0:5 ✺
11.09.26	Cambrian United - Holywell Town	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Holywell Town - Trefelin	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLLLT

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