Match Info

SCOTLAND: League One - Round 20

Date: 4 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Gayfield Park (Arbroath)


	Arbroath		Alloa Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.5	3.9
	1.83	3.4	3.6
	1.85	3.55	3.9
	1.9	3.45	3.9
	1.91	3.4	3.9
	1.84	3.56	3.87	Watch
	1.85	3.55	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↓ (1.92)	3.49 ↑ (3.36)	3.85 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbroath
49.7%

Draw
26.4%

Alloa Athletic
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

27.5%

24.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.5%

26.7%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Alloa Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alloa Athletic than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Arbroath - Alloa Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: Arbroath will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. McAdams A. (G) 7. Gold D. 23. Smith D. 5. O'Brien T. 4. Wilkie J. 20. Flynn R. 32. Spalding A. 12. Stewart S. 14. Taylor F. 11. Dow R. 10. Reilly G.	31. Morrison P. (G) 2. Taggart S. 15. McKay D. 6. Neill M. 17. Thomson K. 20. O'Donnell C. 4. Hetherington S. 12. Scougall S. 9. Donnelly L. 18. Sammon C. 24. Rankin L.
Substitutes
18. Bisland L. 8. Callaghan L. 16. Coulson Q. 9. Gallagher C. 31. Mcconnell J. (G) 22. Murray I. 19. Sinclair B. 6. Slater C.	19. Buchanan S. 7. Cawley K. 5. Graham A. 10. Honeyman S. 22. Mullen R. 11. Nevans S. 1. Ogayi T. (G) 14. Virtanen M. 25. Watkins L. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
13', 1 - 0, Reilly G. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Scougall S. ⚽,
23', Hetherington S. 🟨,
40', 1 - 2, Rankin L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gold D. ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
49', Hetherington S. ↓, Virtanen M. ↑,
56', 1 - 3, McKay D. ⚽,
58', O'Donnell C. 🟨,
64', Spalding A. ↓, Murray I. ↑,
72', Scougall S. ↓, Cawley K. ↑,
72', Sammon C. ↓, Honeyman S. ↑,
73', O'Brien T. 🟨,
79', Rankin L. 🟨,
83', Dow R. ↓, Slater C. ↑,
85', Flynn R. 🟨,
88', Rankin L. ↓, Buchanan S. ↑,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 2.

Arbroath is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Alloa is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Arbroath is a favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Arbroath won 5 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 19:24 (average 1.2:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Arbroath won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:7 (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish League One
28.12.24	Arbroath - Montrose	3:0 ✺
21.12.24	Annan Athletic - Arbroath	0:4 ✺
17.12.24	Kelty Hearts - Arbroath	3:2 ✺
14.12.24	Inverness - Arbroath	0:2 ✺
07.12.24	Arbroath - Queen of the South	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWLWW
- Alloa Athletic
Scottish League One
28.12.24	Alloa Athletic - Stenhousemuir	1:3 ✺
21.12.24	Cove Rangers - Alloa Athletic	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Alloa Athletic - Montrose	1:2 ✺
07.12.24	Kelty Hearts - Alloa Athletic	0:2 ✺
03.12.24	Alloa Athletic - Dumbarton	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
26.10.24	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	0:1
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.10.24	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	1:0
Scottish League One
31.08.24	Arbroath - Alloa Athletic	0:0
Scottish Football Championship
03.04.21	Arbroath - Alloa Athletic	2:1
13.02.21	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	1:1
12.12.20	Arbroath - Alloa Athletic	0:1
21.01.20	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	2:0

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