Match Info

SCOTLAND: League One - Round 30

Date: 22 March 2025, Saturday

Location: New Central Park (Kelty)


	Kelty Hearts		Arbroath

	1	X	2
	4.1	3.6	1.8
	4.2	3.5	1.68
	4.3	3.55	1.77
	4.78	3.36	1.79	Watch
	4.5	3.5	1.75
	4.13	3.63	1.82	Watch
	4.3	3.55	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.33 ↑ (2.9)	3.53 ↑ (3.4)	1.77 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kelty Hearts
21.4%

Draw
26.3%

Arbroath
52.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.9%

27.2%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

26.3%

42.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kelty Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Kelty Hearts's form might have worsened.

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Arbroath's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Kelty Hearts, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Arbroath, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Kelty Hearts - Arbroath Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Kelty Hearts will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Arbroath will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Adamson R. (G) 27. Broadfoot K. 4. O'Ware T. (C) 5. Flatman C. 17. McCarvel L. 12. McClure B. 8. Brown L. 15. MacIntyre J. 3. Paterson B. 10. Cunningham R. 9. Johnston C.	21. McAdams A. (G) 2. Steele A. 27. Muirhead A. 15. Watson K. 4. Wilkie J. 12. Stewart S. 20. Flynn R. (C) 6. Stanton S. 7. Gold D. 14. Taylor F. 25. Winter A.
Substitutes
7. Allan S. 26. Fellows C. 22. Hobbs B. 24. Lyon J. 1. McGurn D. (G) 14. McLeish L. 20. Mercer S. 16. Thomas M. 19. Watson J.	31. Mcconnell J. (G) 24. McKechnie K. 22. Murray I. 5. O'Brien T. 32. Spalding A. 26. Thomson J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Watson K. ⚽, Gold D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
54', Gold D. ↓, Spalding A. ↑,
68', Cunningham R. ↓, Allan S. ↑,
76', McCarvel L. ↓, McLeish L. ↑,
82', Taylor F. ↓, King B. ↑,
82', Flynn R. ↓, O'Brien T. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Recent matches Kelty Hearts is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arbroath in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Arbroath could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arbroath is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Kelty Hearts won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:7 (average 2.3:1.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Kelty Hearts won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League One
15.03.25	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	0:0 ✺
11.03.25	Kelty Hearts - Cove Rangers	0:4 ✺
08.03.25	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:0 ✺
01.03.25	Queen of the South - Kelty Hearts	0:1 ✺
25.02.25	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 TLTWL
- Arbroath
Scottish League One
15.03.25	Arbroath - Dumbarton	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Alloa Athletic - Arbroath	2:3 ✺
04.03.25	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
01.03.25	Arbroath - Annan Athletic	3:0 ✺
25.02.25	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
25.02.25	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	2:1
17.12.24	Kelty Hearts - Arbroath	3:2
17.08.24	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	0:3
Scottish League Cup
24.07.21	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	3:2

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