Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 14

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Real Madrid Castilla		Barakaldo

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.3	4
	1.88	3.25	3.95
	1.85	3.36	4.37
	1.97	3.36	3.73	Watch
	1.84	3.2	4.13
	1.83	3.2	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (1.97)	3.28 ↓ (3.36)	4.03 ↑ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid Castilla
49.2%

Draw
28%

Barakaldo
22.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

27.7%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

26.9%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid Castilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fran (G) 2. Jimenez D. 15. Martinez J. 3. Valdepenas V. 5. Serrano M. 27. Pitarch T. 14. Cestero Sancho J. 6. Perea C. 7. Yanez D. 37. Gines A. 10. Palacios C. (C)	1. Ispizua I. (G) 7. Pedernales I. 4. Dufur U. 18. Arana M. 23. Albizua U. 20. Mandiang S. 5. Molina E. 21. San Bartolome V. 6. Naveira U. 11. Perez E. 19. Galarza A.
Substitutes
33. Castrelo G. 23. Fati L. 17. Fortea J. 20. Fortuny P. 39. Leiva A. 30. Mesonero D. 4. Rivas M. 13. Sunico G. (G) 9. Zuniga L.	13. Campos G. (G) 17. de Leon J. 3. Garcia B. 8. Huidobro J. 16. Lopez O. 14. Munoz I. 24. Ropero I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M. 9. Valino A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Perea C. 🟨,
30', Naveira U. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Palacios C. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Dufur U. ↓, de Leon J. ↑,
46', Mandiang S. ↓, Garcia B. ↑,
46', San Bartolome V. ↓, Sabin ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Sabin ⚽,
62', Perea C. ↓, Mesonero D. ↑,
73', 2 - 1, Jimenez D. ⚽,
75', Molina E. ↓, Valino A. ↑,
75', Galarza A. ↓, Huidobro J. ↑,
79', Gines A. ↓, Fortuny P. ↑,
88', de Leon J. 🟨,
89', Mesonero D. 🟥,
90+2', Palacios C. ↓, Fati L. ↑,
90+8', Leiva A. 🟥,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Barakaldo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Real Madrid Castilla is seen as the favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid Castilla won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 1.5:0.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Real Madrid Castilla won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 2:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.11.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
15.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Cacereño	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Mérida AD - Real Madrid Castilla	3:0 ✺
02.11.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Talavera de la Reina	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Real Avilés	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LWLWW
- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.11.25	Barakaldo - Ferrol	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Osasuna B - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Barakaldo - Ponferradina	0:0 ✺
31.10.25	Lugo - Barakaldo	2:2 ✺
24.10.25	Barakaldo - Tenerife	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
25.03.17	Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo	2:1
02.11.16	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	1:1
09.04.16	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1
22.11.15	Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo	0:0
21.02.15	Real Madrid Castilla - Barakaldo	4:0
05.10.14	Barakaldo - Real Madrid Castilla	0:1

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