Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Lezama Facilities (Lezama)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Athletic Bilbao B		Ponferradina

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.25
	2.15	3.05	3.3
	2.13	3.19	3.48	Watch
	2.1	2.8	3.4
	2.15	3.02	3.31
	2.08	2.9	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↑ (1.98)	3.01 ↓ (3.27)	3.37 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Athletic Bilbao B
43%

Draw
30.1%

Ponferradina
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

28%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

26.5%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Athletic Bilbao B has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Ponferradina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao B than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Athletic Bilbao B, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Santos M. (G) 15. Alday I. 4. Dunabeitia A. 3. De Luis J. 12. Barandalla M. 22. Perez A. 8. Lete E. 10. Sanchez I. 18. Garcia E. 23. Gift E. 9. Sanz I.	1. Prieto A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 3. Novoa G. 2. Andujar D. 19. Lopez A. 18. Vazquez B. 8. Aguilar Elizalde E. 6. San Emeterio F. 10. Valle B. 7. Sergio Benito 20. Ferrer P.
Substitutes
11. Bujan E. 31. Conde A. 5. Ebro Cortina E. 1. Gamen E. (G) 6. Gibelalde M. 17. Huestamendia P. 2. Irurita X. 19. Louis-Jean J. 20. Vizcay T.	9. Cortes J. 14. Fernandez X. 16. Frimpong E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 17. Keita A. 26. Kysil V. 4. Moltenis B. 21. Moreno D. 11. Mula A. 15. Sousa V. 5. Undabarrena E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Jorrin M. 🟨,
41', Barandalla M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jorrin M. ↓, Moreno D. ↑,
57', 1 - 0, Garcia E. ⚽,
61', Vazquez B. 🟨,
64', Sergio Benito ↓, Keita A. ↑,
64', Ferrer P. ↓, Cortes J. ↑,
64', Valle B. ↓, Fernandez X. ↑,
85', Aguilar Elizalde E. 🟥,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 9 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao B won 2.

Recent performances by Athletic Bilbao B have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ponferradina has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Athletic Bilbao B is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Athletic Bilbao B won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Athletic Bilbao B won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ath Bilbao B	6	3	2	1	12:8	4	11
5	Ponferradina	6	3	2	1	5:3	2	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Athletic Bilbao B
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.12.25	Mérida AD - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
14.12.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Celta de Vigo B	1:2 ✺
07.12.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Athletic Bilbao B	3:1 ✺
29.11.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Lugo	2:0 ✺
22.11.25	CD Guadalajara - Athletic Bilbao B	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WLLWW
- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.12.25	Tenerife - Ponferradina	2:0 ✺
13.12.25	Ponferradina - Arenteiro	1:3 ✺
08.12.25	Unionistas de Salamanca - Ponferradina	2:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
04.12.25	Ponferradina - Racing Santander	1:2 ET ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
29.11.25	Ponferradina - Arenas Club de Getxo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
23.08.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
03.05.25	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	2:0
11.10.24	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	0:0
Club Friendly
24.07.24	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	0:1
Spanish LaLiga2
27.02.16	Athletic Bilbao B - Ponferradina	4:2
26.09.15	Ponferradina - Athletic Bilbao B	1:0

Upcoming Matches