Match Info

POLAND: Division 1 - Round 17

Date: 24 November 2024, Sunday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni (Gdynia)

Referee: Rzucidlo P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Arka Gdynia		Stal Stalowa Wola

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.37	4.6	7
	1.36	4.75	8	Watch
	1.38	4.85	7.74
	1.38	4.65	7.96	Watch
	1.3	4.6	8
	1.4	4.5	7.5	Watch
	1.36	4.75	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.32)	4.65 ↓ (4.8)	7.71 ↓ (8.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arka Gdynia
67.9%

Draw
20%

Stal Stalowa Wola
12.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.6%

19.1%

11.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

17%

12.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arka Gdynia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Stal Stalowa Wola has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arka Gdynia than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Arka Gdynia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Stalowa Wola than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	20%	10%

Arka Gdynia - Stal Stalowa Wola Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Arka will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Stal Stalowa Wola will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arka: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Weglarz D. (G) 2. Navarro M. 4. Dobrotka M. 29. Marcjanik M. 94. Gojny D. (C) 9. Gaprindashvili T. 8. Sidibe A. 39. Kocaba F. 14. Vitalucci H. 27. Oliveira J. 63. Marcus	1. Wilk A. (G) 2. Kukulowicz B. 55. Oko D. 27. Jonczy D. 24. Urban D. 21. Mydlarz M. 22. Banach J. (C) 26. Zaucha P. 77. Chelmecki K. 23. Svec J. 11. Strozik S.
Substitutes
10. Czubak K. 38. Gorecki K. 1. Lenarcik P. (G) 16. Ratajczyk A. 19. Rzuchowski M. 21. Skora K. 7. Sobczak S. 32. Stolc P. 28. Zielinski W.	7. Gorski J. 10. Imiela A. 97. Joao Tavares 9. Lacki D. 16. Lelek K. 18. Pchelka C. 20. Pioterczak B. 33. Smylek M. (G) 8. Soszynski L.
Coaches
Grzegorczyk T.	Pietrzykowski I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', Marcus ↓, Czubak K. ↑,
22', 0 - 1, Strozik S. ⚽, Urban D. (A),
35', Oko D. 🟨,
36', 1 - 1, Kocaba F. ⚽,
43', 2 - 1, Czubak K. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Oko D. ↓, Imiela A. ↑,
46', Jonczy D. ↓, Lelek K. ↑,
46', Svec J. ↓, Gorski J. ↑,
48', 3 - 1, Vitalucci H. ⚽,
59', 4 - 1, Czubak K. ⚽,
77', Chelmecki K. ↓, Lacki D. ↑,
78', 5 - 1, Czubak K. ⚽,
80', Sidibe A. ↓, Rzuchowski M. ↑,
80', Vitalucci H. ↓, Sobczak S. ↑,
82', Zaucha P. 🟨,
82', Mydlarz M. 🟥,
86', Strozik S. ↓, Pchelka C. ↑,
87', Oliveira J. ↓, Skora K. ↑,
88', Gaprindashvili T. ↓, Ratajczyk A. ↑,
90+6', Gorski J. 🟨,

Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 2).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

In this match Arka is certain favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Arka won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arka Gdynia
Club Friendly
15.11.24	Pogoń Szczecin - Arka Gdynia	1:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
09.11.24	GKS Tychy - Arka Gdynia	1:1 ✺
02.11.24	Arka Gdynia - Wisła Płock	2:0 ✺
Polish Cup
30.10.24	Arka Gdynia - Piast Gliwice	1:3 ET ✺
Polish Division 1
26.10.24	Termalica Nieciecza - Arka Gdynia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TTWLL
- FC Stal Stalowa Wola
Polish Division 1
10.11.24	Stal Stalowa Wola - Wisła Kraków	1:5 ✺
02.11.24	Znicz Pruszków - Stal Stalowa Wola	0:1 ✺
27.10.24	Stal Stalowa Wola - Polonia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
20.10.24	ŁKS Łódź - Stal Stalowa Wola	0:0 ✺
05.10.24	Stal Stalowa Wola - Stal Rzeszów	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.4 LWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
25.09.24	Stal Stalowa Wola - Arka Gdynia	2:3 penalties

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