Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Schüco Arena (Bielefeld)

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Arminia Bielefeld		Schalke 04

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.4	2.4	Watch
	2.3	3.7	2.8
	2.58	3.45	2.48
	2.72	3.66	2.59
	5.28	4.10	1.59	Watch
	2.62	3.46	2.49	Watch
	2.32	3.7	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.22)	3.64 ↑ (3.45)	2.45 ↓ (2.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arminia Bielefeld
33.5%

Draw
26.7%

Schalke 04
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

26.9%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

27.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arminia Bielefeld has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Arminia Bielefeld's form might have worsened.

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Schalke 04's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arminia Bielefeld than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arminia Bielefeld, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Schalke 04, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	27.8%	50%

Arminia Bielefeld - Schalke 04 Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Arminia will win (votes: 4 - 23.5%). Schalke will win (votes: 8 - 47.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schalke: 23.4% – 70.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Arminia (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Arminia (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Arminia (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kersken J. (G) 24. Lannert C. 23. Schneider L. 3. Felix J. 2. Hagmann F. 8. Schreck S. 19. Grosser M. 6. Corboz M. (C) 14. Momuluh T. 11. Grodowski J. 38. Worl M.	1. Karius L. (G) 43. Ayhan M. 25. Katic N. 4. Kurucay H. 17. Gantenbein A. 23. El-Faouzi S. 6. Schallenberg R. 33. Becker V. 18. Antwi-Adjei C. 19. Karaman K. (C) 9. Sylla M.
Substitutes
27. Boakye B. 47. Hildesheim P. (G) 7. Kania J. 13. Kunze L. 20. Micheler F. 45. Ocansey V. A. F. 17. Sicker A. 33. Theiss M. 30. Young I.	14. Bachmann J. 30. Donkor A. 28. Heekeren J. (G) 11. Lasme B. 41. Matriciani H. 27. Porath F. 2. Sanchez F. 8. Younes A. 16. Zalazar M.
Coaches
Kniat M.	Muslic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Antwi-Adjei C. ⚽,
17', Corboz M. 🟨,
18', 0 - 2, Kurucay H. ⚽, Becker V. (A),
32', Schreck S. 🟨,
44', Grodowski J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Felix J. ↓, Young I. ↑,
48', 1 - 2, Grosser M. ⚽, Lannert C. (A),
50', Becker V. 🟨,
69', Sylla M. ↓, Lasme B. ↑,
69', Antwi-Adjei C. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
73', Grodowski J. ↓, Kania J. ↑,
77', Gantenbein A. 🟨,
80', Gantenbein A. ↓, Porath F. ↑,
80', Becker V. ↓, Sanchez F. ↑,
85', Momuluh T. ↓, Boakye B. ↑,
89', Worl M. ↓, Ocansey V. A. F. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 6).

Arminia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Schalke has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Arminia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Arminia: Handwerker T. (Muscle Injury) Hilterman J. (Shoulder Injury) Mehlem M. (Yellow Cards) Sarenren Bazee N. (Muscle Injury) Uldrikis R. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Schalke: Amoussou-Tchibara Z. (Knee Injury) Gruger M. (Foot Injury) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Knock) Remmert P. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Arminia: Mehlem M. (Injury) Momuluh T. (Injury)

There are questionable in Schalke: Becker T. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Arminia won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Arminia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Arminia Bielefeld - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.87%, but this team recently wins 78% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arminia Bielefeld
German 2 Bundesliga
28.09.25	Hannover - Arminia Bielefeld	3:1 ✺
19.09.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Greuther Fürth	1:3 ✺
12.09.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Magdeburg	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Eintracht Braunschweig - Arminia Bielefeld	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Arminia Bielefeld - Dynamo Dresden	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWTL
- Schalke 04
German 2 Bundesliga
26.09.25	Schalke 04 - Greuther Fürth	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Magdeburg - Schalke 04	0:2 ✺
13.09.25	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
31.08.25	Dynamo Dresden - Schalke 04	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.04.21	Arminia Bielefeld - Schalke 04	1:0
19.12.20	Schalke 04 - Arminia Bielefeld	0:1
German DFB Pokal
29.10.19	Arminia Bielefeld - Schalke 04	2:3
Club Friendly
18.01.16	Arminia Bielefeld - Schalke 04	1:0

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