Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 5

Date: 13 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Veltins Arena (Gelsenkirchen)

Referee: Kampka R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, Sky Sport Bundesliga 5, WOW
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, Now Player
Iceland	Viaplay
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Norway	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Serbia	Arena Premium 2, SportKlub 1
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 2, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	Tivibu Spor 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Schalke 04		Holstein Kiel

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3.2
	2.18	3.35	3.05
	2.25	3.77	3.19
	3.55	3.84	1.92	Watch
	2.24	3.48	3.14	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.37)	3.57 ↑ (3.55)	2.95 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Schalke 04
40%

Draw
27.2%

Holstein Kiel
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

26.6%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

26.4%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Schalke 04 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Schalke 04 than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Schalke will win (votes: 10 - 83.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Schalke: 62.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Schalke (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Schalke 04 will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Schalke (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Karius L. (G) 5. Becker T. (C) 25. Katic N. 2. Sanchez F. 27. Porath F. 6. Schallenberg R. 23. El-Faouzi S. 33. Becker V. 7. Gomis C. 19. Karaman K. 9. Sylla M.	21. Krumrey J. (G) 47. Tolkin J. 26. Zec D. 5. Johansson C. 3. Komenda M. 11. Bernhardsson A. 15. Davidsen K. 24. Knudsen M. (C) 20. Kapralik A. 7. Skrzybski S. 25. Muller M.
Substitutes
18. Antwi-Adjei C. 43. Ayhan M. 17. Gantenbein A. 28. Heekeren J. (G) 4. Kurucay H. 11. Lasme B. 41. Matriciani H. 14. Onofrietti V. 16. Zalazar M.	19. Harres P. 6. Ivezic M. 13. Nekic I. 29. Niehoff N. 23. Rosenboom L. 22. Schwab S. 10. Therkelsen J. 39. Wagner R.
Coaches
Muslic M.	Rapp M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Bernhardsson A. ⚽, Kapralik A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Skrzybski S. 🟨,
64', Schallenberg R. ↓, Bachmann J. ↑,
64', Porath F. ↓, Gantenbein A. ↑,
64', Skrzybski S. ↓, Harres P. ↑,
65', Muller M. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
68', Gomis C. ↓, Lasme B. ↑,
73', Kapralik A. ↓, Therkelsen J. ↑,
78', Sanchez F. ↓, Kurucay H. ↑,
79', Becker V. ↓, Antwi-Adjei C. ↑,
83', Komenda M. ↓, Ivezic M. ↑,
83', Knudsen M. ↓, Wagner R. ↑,
87', Johansson C. 🟨,
90+7', Zec D. 🟨,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Schalke has had a series of away games.

Schalke might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Schalke: Amoussou-Tchibara Z. (Knee Injury) Gruger M. (Foot Injury) Hojlund E. (Heel Injury) Kalas T. (Knock) Remmert P. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Cvjetinovic M. (Ankle Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Kelati A. (Knee Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Schalke won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Schalke won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Schalke 04
Club Friendly
05.09.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Schalke 04	2:0 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
31.08.25	Dynamo Dresden - Schalke 04	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Schalke 04 - Bochum	2:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Lokomotive Leipzig - Schalke 04	0:1 ET ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
09.08.25	Kaiserslautern - Schalke 04	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWWWL
- Holstein Kiel
Club Friendly
03.09.25	Holstein Kiel - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Holstein Kiel - Hannover	1:2 ✺
24.08.25	Greuther Fürth - Holstein Kiel	0:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
17.08.25	Homburg - Holstein Kiel	0:2 ✺
German 2 Bundesliga
10.08.25	Holstein Kiel - Arminia Bielefeld	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 TLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga
11.02.24	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	1:0
25.08.23	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	0:2
16.01.22	Schalke 04 - Holstein Kiel	1:1
01.08.21	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	0:3
Club Friendly
22.07.16	Holstein Kiel - Schalke 04	1:2

Upcoming Matches