Match Info

Date: 14 May 2022, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Costa R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Arouca		BSAD

	1	X	2
	2.37	3.4	2.87	Watch
	2.3	3.25	2.95
	2.32	3.35	2.95
	2.35	3.25	2.95
	2.39	3.46	3.13
	2.38	3.2	3	Watch
	2.35	3.48	2.97	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.15)	3.34 ↑ (3.26)	2.97 ↓ (3.56)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
40.1%

Draw
28.2%

BSAD
31.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

29.1%

26.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

31.9%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

BSAD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting BSAD's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Arouca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for BSAD, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	15%	5%

Arouca - BSAD Predictions

Users Predictions: Arouca will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Arouca has the most likely position - 15 (100%), has project points - 31, has currently - 31, has not chance of relegated, has not chance of qualify for ucl.

Belenenses has the most likely position - 18 (100%), has project points - 26, has currently - 26, was already of relegated.

This event has quality 40, small importance 10, small match rating 25. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Arouca won 3 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 12-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 6-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
08.05.22	Braga - Arouca	1:0 ✺
30.04.22	Arouca - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
22.04.22	Vizela - Arouca	2:1 ✺
15.04.22	Arouca - Santa Clara	1:1 ✺
09.04.22	Boavista - Arouca	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LWLTL
- BSAD
Liga Portugal
09.05.22	BSAD - Famalicão	2:3 ✺
30.04.22	BSAD - Braga	0:1 ✺
24.04.22	Estoril Praia - BSAD	2:2 ✺
16.04.22	BSAD - Vizela	1:0 ✺
09.04.22	Benfica - BSAD	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
09.01.22	BSAD - Arouca	2:1
27.02.17	Arouca - BSAD	1:2
26.09.16	BSAD - Arouca	1:1
21.02.16	BSAD - Arouca	0:2
27.09.15	Arouca - BSAD	2:2
10.04.15	Arouca - BSAD	0:1
29.11.14	BSAD - Arouca	0:0

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