Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 7

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Melo F. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Arouca		Chaves

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.5	3.8	Watch
	1.93	3.5	3.8	Watch
	1.95	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.98	3.65	4.01
	1.91	3.6	3.75	Watch
	1.92	3.64	3.88	Watch
	2	3.55	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.74)	3.58 ↓ (3.68)	3.82 ↓ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
48.7%

Draw
26.5%

Chaves
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.4%

25.3%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.6%

22.1%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
61.5%	15.4%	23.1%

Arouca - Chaves Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Chaves will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 35% – 88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 22. Milovanov B. 64. Fernandes R. 4. Montero F. 26. Weverson 5. Simao D. (C) 14. Busquets O. 2. Sylla M. 9. Trezza A. 23. Cristo 10. Jason	1. Hugo Souza (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 19. Vitoria S. 3. Ygor Nogueira 77. Araujo Correia J. P. (C) 10. Sanca L. 21. Guimaraes R. 28. Nwakali K. 5. Langa B. A. 23. Hernandez H. 99. Jo
Substitutes
30. Bukia A. 28. Esgaio T. 44. Galovic N. 8. Kouassi E. 7. Lawal Y. 19. Mujica R. 11. Puche 89. Santos Carvalho P. 16. Thiago (G)	7. Bernardo Sousa 33. Cruz S. 31. Moura R. (G) 9. Paulo Victor 8. Pedro J. 18. Pinho P. 44. Queiros J. 20. Ribeiro R. 2. Sylla H.
Coaches
Ramos D.	Morgado L.

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arouca won 2.

Recent matches Arouca is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chaves has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Chaves could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Arouca is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Arouca won 4 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 9-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Arouca won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Portuguese League Cup
26.09.23	AVS - Arouca	1:2 ✺
Liga Portugal
22.09.23	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
17.09.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	0:1 ✺
03.09.23	Porto - Arouca	1:1 ✺
26.08.23	Arouca - Portimonense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WLLTT
- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
24.09.23	Chaves - Estrela da Amadora	2:2 ✺
18.09.23	Boavista - Chaves	4:1 ✺
03.09.23	Chaves - Moreirense	1:2 ✺
26.08.23	Farense - Chaves	5:0 ✺
19.08.23	Chaves - Braga	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
20.05.23	Arouca - Chaves	1:0
15.01.23	Chaves - Arouca	1:1
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Arouca - Chaves	0:0
Portuguese Liga 2
22.05.21	Arouca - Chaves	3:1
24.01.21	Chaves - Arouca	2:1
Portuguese League Cup
29.07.18	Arouca - Chaves	0:1 penalties
Liga Portugal
18.02.17	Chaves - Arouca	2:0

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