Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 6

Date: 24 September 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Baixinho R. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV4


	Chaves		Estrela da Amadora

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.25	2.7	Watch
				Watch
	2.55	3.3	2.75	Watch
	2.6	3.57	2.76
	2.5	3.2	2.45	Watch
	2.55	3.48	2.67	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.57 ↑ (2.5)	3.37 ↑ (3.25)	2.66 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
36.6%

Draw
28%

Estrela da Amadora
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

28.7%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

28.5%

33.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Estrela da Amadora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estrela da Amadora than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	45.5%	27.3%

Chaves - Estrela da Amadora Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Estrela will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 45.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 16.1% – 74.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 44. Queiros J. 19. Vitoria S. 3. Ygor Nogueira 77. Araujo Correia J. P. (C) 9. Paulo Victor 21. Guimaraes R. 20. Ribeiro R. 5. Langa B. A. 10. Sanca L. 23. Hernandez H.	30. Bruno (G) 70. Mansur 13. Lopes M. 4. Gaspar K. 27. Hevertton S. 6. Aloisio 22. Leo Cordeiro 17. Joao Reis (C) 90. Ronald 9. Tavares R. 8. Leo Jaba
Substitutes
7. Bernardo Sousa 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Cruz S. 99. Jo 31. Moura R. (G) 28. Nwakali K. 8. Pedro J. 18. Pinho P. 2. Sylla H.	10. Andre Luiz 1. Antonio Filipe (G) 12. Jean Felipe 23. Keliano M. 29. Kikas 7. Ndo R. 61. Ndour A. 2. Omurwa J. 21. Sa P.
Coaches
Morgado L.	Vieira S.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

Chaves has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Estrela is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Estrela could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Chaves won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
18.09.23	Boavista - Chaves	4:1 ✺
03.09.23	Chaves - Moreirense	1:2 ✺
26.08.23	Farense - Chaves	5:0 ✺
19.08.23	Chaves - Braga	2:4 ✺
13.08.23	Rio Ave - Chaves	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Estrela da Amadora
Liga Portugal
15.09.23	Estrela da Amadora - Porto	0:1 ✺
02.09.23	Portimonense - Estrela da Amadora	1:1 ✺
25.08.23	Estrela da Amadora - Estoril Praia	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Benfica - Estrela da Amadora	2:0 ✺
13.08.23	Estrela da Amadora - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.05.22	Chaves - Estrela da Amadora	2:2
27.12.21	Estrela da Amadora - Chaves	1:3

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