Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 28

Date: 6 April 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Angola	Z Sports 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Arouca		Estoril Praia

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.5	2.7	Watch
	2.42	3.45	2.72	Watch
	2.49	3.58	2.83
	2.42	3.58	2.77	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.7	Watch
	2.5	3.62	2.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.52)	3.51 ↑ (3.47)	2.76 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
38.8%

Draw
26.9%

Estoril Praia
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

27.2%

35.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

27.4%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Estoril Praia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Arouca - Estoril Praia Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Estoril will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 2.5% – 64.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Tiago Esgaio (C) 15. Sanchez J. 3. Fontan J. 25. Kuipers B. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 10. Gozalbez P. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	1. Robles J. (G) 2. Sanchez R. 5. Tsoungui A. 25. Bacher F. 24. Amaral P. 6. Jandro 8. Xeka 10. Holsgrove J. 14. Begraoui Y. 12. Carvalho J. (C) 19. Lacximicant A.
Substitutes
44. Dante A. 46. Flores M. 24. Mansilla B. 9. Mayulu F. 6. Monteiro D. 89. Pedro Santos 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 1. Valido J. (G)	22. Carvalho P. 31. Dias D. (G) 97. Gomes L. 7. Lominadze N. 9. Marques A. 70. Peixinho 21. Pizzi 16. Turk M. (G)
Coaches
Seabra V.	Cathro I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Xeka ⚽, Carvalho J. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Barbero I. ⚽, Djouahra N. (A),
23', Holsgrove J. 🟨,
32', 1 - 2, Begraoui Y. ⚽, Lacximicant A. (A),
45+2', 2 - 2, Fontan J. ⚽, Barbero I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 3 - 2, Gozalbez P. ⚽, Tiago Esgaio (A),
56', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
65', Xeka ↓, Marques A. ↑,
65', Carvalho J. ↓, Pizzi ↑,
65', Amaral P. ↓, Carvalho P. ↑,
71', Lacximicant A. 🟨,
74', Lacximicant A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
77', Gozalbez P. ↓, Puche ↑,
83', Barbero I. ↓, Pedro Santos ↑,
83', Fukui T. ↓, Mansilla B. ↑,
90', Djouahra N. ↓, Mayulu F. ↑,
90', Lee H. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
90+1', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
90+7', Puche 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 12 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Estoril: Boma K. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Arouca: Lee H. (Injury) Nandin D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:30. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.6:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	4:12	-8	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
21.03.26	Moreirense - Arouca	0:1 ✺
14.03.26	Arouca - Benfica	1:2 ✺
06.03.26	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Porto - Arouca	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Arouca - Nacional	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WLLLW
- Estoril Praia
Liga Portugal
22.03.26	Estoril Praia - Rio Ave	1:2 ✺
15.03.26	Nacional - Estoril Praia	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
27.02.26	Sporting Lisbon - Estoril Praia	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Estoril Praia - Gil Vicente	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
07.11.25	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:3
16.03.25	Arouca - Estoril Praia	1:1
26.10.24	Estoril Praia - Arouca	4:1
20.01.24	Estoril Praia - Arouca	1:2
13.08.23	Arouca - Estoril Praia	4:3
15.05.23	Estoril Praia - Arouca	2:0
07.01.23	Arouca - Estoril Praia	2:0

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