Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 24

Date: 1 March 2024, Friday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Croatia	SportKlub
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	SportKlub


	Chaves		Arouca

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	2.15	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.3	3.4	2.15	Watch
	3.4	3.36	2.16
	3.46	3.46	2.22
	3.3	3.4	2.1	Watch
	3.34	3.54	2.13	Watch
	3.25	3.5	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↓ (3.76)	3.45 ↓ (3.5)	2.15 ↑ (2.01)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
28.4%

Draw
27.5%

Arouca
44%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

27.2%

47.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

27.8%

46.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Arouca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.1%	28.6%	64.3%

Chaves - Arouca Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). Arouca will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Arouca: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hugo Souza (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 13. Fernandes V. 40. Pius J. 77. Correia J. (C) 14. Essugo D. 80. Raphael Guzzo 28. Nwakali K. 10. Sanca L. 99. Jo 7. Benny	12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 28. Esgaio T. 3. Robson Bambu 4. Montero F. 26. Weverson 5. Simao D. (C) 89. Santos Carvalho P. 10. Jason 23. Cristo 2. Sylla M. 19. Mujica R.
Substitutes
27. Carraca 21. Guima 70. Morim H. 31. Moura R. (G) 9. Paulo Victor 18. Pinho P. 20. Ribeiro R. 19. Vitoria S. 3. Ygor Nogueira	14. Busquets O. 44. Galovic N. 25. Hamache Y. 8. Kouassi E. 7. Lawal Y. 22. Milovanov B. 11. Puche 16. Thiago (G) 9. Trezza A.
Coaches
Morgado L.	Sousa D.

Preview

A team from the mid-table and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 7).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chaves won 1.

Recent matches Chaves is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Arouca is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Arouca will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Chaves: Guima (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Arouca: Quaresma (Injury) Vitinho (Injury)

There are questionable in Chaves: Pinho P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Arouca: Kouassi E. (Injury)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Chaves won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 10-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
24.02.24	Estrela da Amadora - Chaves	1:1 ✺
17.02.24	Chaves - Boavista	2:1 ✺
10.02.24	Moreirense - Chaves	1:0 ✺
04.02.24	Chaves - Farense	1:1 ✺
31.01.24	Braga - Chaves	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 TWLTT
- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
23.02.24	Arouca - Famalicão	3:2 ✺
18.02.24	Casa Pia - Arouca	1:0 ✺
12.02.24	Arouca - Porto	3:2 ✺
03.02.24	Portimonense - Arouca	1:2 ✺
28.01.24	Arouca - Vizela	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
01.10.23	Arouca - Chaves	0:2
20.05.23	Arouca - Chaves	1:0
15.01.23	Chaves - Arouca	1:1
Club Friendly
23.07.22	Arouca - Chaves	0:0
Portuguese Liga 2
22.05.21	Arouca - Chaves	3:1
24.01.21	Chaves - Arouca	2:1
Portuguese League Cup
29.07.18	Arouca - Chaves	0:1 penalties

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