Match Info

Date: 8 April 2022, Friday


	Penafiel		Varzim

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.1	2.4	Watch
	2.65	2.85	2.6
	2.75	2.8	2.63
	2.85	2.85	2.55
	2.94	3.03	2.76
	2.75	2.75	2.62
	2.77	3	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (1.68)	2.91 ↓ (3.2)	2.6 ↓ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Penafiel
33.2%

Draw
31.5%

Varzim
35.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

28.3%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.4%

28%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Penafiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-20.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Penafiel's form might have worsened.

Varzim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Varzim's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penafiel than the current prediction. (+21.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Penafiel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Varzim than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Varzim, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Penafiel - Varzim Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 9 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 0.

Recent matches Penafiel is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Varzim is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Penafiel will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Penafiel won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 18-16.

Including matches at home between the teams Penafiel won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Penafiel
Portuguese Liga 2
01.04.22	Leixões - Penafiel	0:1 ✺
19.03.22	Penafiel - Farense	1:3 ✺
12.03.22	Rio Ave - Penafiel	2:0 ✺
06.03.22	Penafiel - Chaves	2:1 ✺
26.02.22	Mafra - Penafiel	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLLWT
- Varzim SC
Portuguese Liga 2
04.04.22	Varzim - Porto B	2:1 ✺
20.03.22	Vilafranquense - Varzim	0:0 ✺
11.03.22	Varzim - Académico de Viseu	1:0 ✺
06.03.22	Benfica B - Varzim	1:2 ✺
28.02.22	Varzim - Feirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.7 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
27.11.21	Varzim - Penafiel	0:2
09.05.21	Varzim - Penafiel	1:2
10.01.21	Penafiel - Varzim	1:2
30.11.19	Varzim - Penafiel	1:0
14.04.19	Penafiel - Varzim	2:0
15.12.18	Varzim - Penafiel	3:4
10.02.18	Penafiel - Varzim	2:3

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