Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 26

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Arouca (Arouca)

Referee: Bessa J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


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World	Onefootball


	Arouca		Benfica

	1	X	2
	9	5.5	1.27	Watch
	9.8	5.4	1.27
	10.13	6.25	1.28
	9.91	5.97	1.28	Watch
	8.5	5.5	1.29	Watch
	9.45	5.77	1.33	Watch
	9.8	5.4	1.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.51 ↓ (9.8)	5.68 ↑ (5.4)	1.29 ↓ (1.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arouca
9.9%

Draw
16.6%

Benfica
73.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

9.7%

17.5%

72.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

9.4%

16.9%

75.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arouca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arouca than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Benfica than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	15.4%	76.9%

Arouca - Benfica Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Arouca will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Benfica will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. De Arruabarrena I. (G) 15. Sanchez J. 6. Monteiro D. 3. Fontan J. (C) 25. Kuipers B. 22. van Ee E. 21. Fukui T. 19. Trezza A. 14. Lee H. 7. Djouahra N. 17. Barbero I.	1. Trubin A. (G) 6. Bah A. 44. Araujo T. 4. Silva A. (C) 26. Dahl S. 18. Barreiro L. 20. Rios R. 11. Lukebakio D. 27. Rafa Silva 21. Schjelderup A. 14. Pavlidis V.
Substitutes
44. Dante A. 10. Gozalbez P. 24. Mansilla B. 23. Nandin D. 5. Popovic B. 11. Puche 20. Santiago Perez J. 2. Silva J. 1. Valido J. (G)	72. Anisio 17. Dedic A. 73. Figueiredo M. 9. Ivanovic F. 16. Manu 64. Oliveira G. 25. Prestianni G. 24. Soares S. (G) 10. Sudakov G.
Coaches
Seabra V.	Tralhao J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Barbero I. (Penalty Awarded),
22', Sanchez J. 🟨,
45+3', Barbero I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', Lee H. 🟨,
51', 1 - 1, Rios R. ⚽, Schjelderup A. (A),
59', Silva A. 🟨,
59', Rios R. 🟨,
70', Lee H. ↓, Gozalbez P. ↑,
73', Bah A. ↓, Dedic A. ↑,
74', Silva A. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
74', Rafa Silva ↓, Sudakov G. ↑,
74', Lukebakio D. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
75', Djouahra N. ↓, Puche ↑,
76', Monteiro D. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
78', Gozalbez P. 🟨,
79', Barbero I. ↓, Nandin D. ↑,
80', Sanchez J. ↓, Popovic B. ↑,
80', De Arruabarrena I. 🟨,
87', Schjelderup A. ↓, Anisio ↑,
90+6', 1 - 2, Ivanovic F. ⚽, Prestianni G. (A),
90+9', Dedic A. 🟥,
90+9', Trezza A. 🟥,
90+9', Pavlidis V. 🟨,
90+11', Trubin A. 🟨,
90+12', Prestianni G. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Benfica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Benfica is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Arouca: Flores M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Benfica: Aursnes F. (Injury) Barrenechea E. (Inactive) Bruma (Inactive) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Otamendi N. (Injury) Veloso J. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Arouca: Pedro Santos (Inactive) Sanchez J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Arouca won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 9:55. (average 0.5:2.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Arouca won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 3:19. (average 0.3:2.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22:7	15	16
6	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10:7	3	11

Last Results with these Odds

Benfica - the odds 1.3 are the expected chance of winning is 72.81%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Arouca
Liga Portugal
06.03.26	Famalicão - Arouca	1:0 ✺
27.02.26	Porto - Arouca	3:1 ✺
21.02.26	Arouca - Nacional	3:0 ✺
14.02.26	Casa Pia - Arouca	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Arouca - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LLWLW
- SL Benfica
Liga Portugal
08.03.26	Benfica - Porto	2:2 ✺
02.03.26	Gil Vicente - Benfica	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
25.02.26	Real Madrid - Benfica	2:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Benfica - AVS	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.02.26	Benfica - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
25.10.25	Benfica - Arouca	5:0
13.04.25	Benfica - Arouca	2:2
01.12.24	Arouca - Benfica	0:2
12.05.24	Benfica - Arouca	5:0
06.01.24	Arouca - Benfica	0:3
Portuguese League Cup
31.10.23	Arouca - Benfica	0:2
Liga Portugal
31.01.23	Arouca - Benfica	0:3

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